Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.
Bottom Line: The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: email@example.com.Show MeSH
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Mentions: Our model was able to capture the dynamics of Ebola virus disease, including infections resulting from exposure to contaminated syringes and person-to-person transmission, and the timing of outcomes (Fig. 3). By fitting to multiple time series, we were able to jointly estimate a number of key epidemiological parameters (Table 2 and Fig. S1). Using these estimates, we calculated the contribution of person-to-person transmission (via infection from living and dead hosts in the community) and hospital-based transmission (via contaminated syringe) to the overall basic reproduction number, R0 (see Text S3). We found that the overall R0 was 4.71 (95% CI: 3.92–5.66) at the onset of the epidemic. Most of this number was the result of hospital-based transmission, although we found evidence that the person-to-person basic reproduction number was above 1 (Table 3).
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: firstname.lastname@example.org.