Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.
Bottom Line: By fitting a mathematical model to time series stratified by disease onset, outcome and source of infection, we were able to estimate several epidemiological quantities that have previously proved challenging to measure, including the contribution of hospital and community infection to transmission.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: firstname.lastname@example.org.Show MeSH
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Mentions: Our model was able to capture the dynamics of Ebola virus disease, including infections resulting from exposure to contaminated syringes and person-to-person transmission, and the timing of outcomes (Fig. 3). By fitting to multiple time series, we were able to jointly estimate a number of key epidemiological parameters (Table 2 and Fig. S1). Using these estimates, we calculated the contribution of person-to-person transmission (via infection from living and dead hosts in the community) and hospital-based transmission (via contaminated syringe) to the overall basic reproduction number, R0 (see Text S3). We found that the overall R0 was 4.71 (95% CI: 3.92–5.66) at the onset of the epidemic. Most of this number was the result of hospital-based transmission, although we found evidence that the person-to-person basic reproduction number was above 1 (Table 3).
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: email@example.com.