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Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.

Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Breman J, Piot P, Edmunds WJ - Epidemics (2014)

Bottom Line: The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: anton.camacho@lshtm.ac.uk.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Comparison of our fitted model and observed daily incidence time series (black dots) reconstructed from the line list of Ebola cases in Zaire in 1976. The mean and median fits are represented by solid and dashed red lines respectively. The dark and light red shaded areas correspond to the 50% and 95% credible intervals. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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fig0015: Comparison of our fitted model and observed daily incidence time series (black dots) reconstructed from the line list of Ebola cases in Zaire in 1976. The mean and median fits are represented by solid and dashed red lines respectively. The dark and light red shaded areas correspond to the 50% and 95% credible intervals. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Mentions: Our model was able to capture the dynamics of Ebola virus disease, including infections resulting from exposure to contaminated syringes and person-to-person transmission, and the timing of outcomes (Fig. 3). By fitting to multiple time series, we were able to jointly estimate a number of key epidemiological parameters (Table 2 and Fig. S1). Using these estimates, we calculated the contribution of person-to-person transmission (via infection from living and dead hosts in the community) and hospital-based transmission (via contaminated syringe) to the overall basic reproduction number, R0 (see Text S3). We found that the overall R0 was 4.71 (95% CI: 3.92–5.66) at the onset of the epidemic. Most of this number was the result of hospital-based transmission, although we found evidence that the person-to-person basic reproduction number was above 1 (Table 3).


Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.

Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Breman J, Piot P, Edmunds WJ - Epidemics (2014)

Comparison of our fitted model and observed daily incidence time series (black dots) reconstructed from the line list of Ebola cases in Zaire in 1976. The mean and median fits are represented by solid and dashed red lines respectively. The dark and light red shaded areas correspond to the 50% and 95% credible intervals. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
© Copyright Policy - CC BY-NC-ND
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4255970&req=5

fig0015: Comparison of our fitted model and observed daily incidence time series (black dots) reconstructed from the line list of Ebola cases in Zaire in 1976. The mean and median fits are represented by solid and dashed red lines respectively. The dark and light red shaded areas correspond to the 50% and 95% credible intervals. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Mentions: Our model was able to capture the dynamics of Ebola virus disease, including infections resulting from exposure to contaminated syringes and person-to-person transmission, and the timing of outcomes (Fig. 3). By fitting to multiple time series, we were able to jointly estimate a number of key epidemiological parameters (Table 2 and Fig. S1). Using these estimates, we calculated the contribution of person-to-person transmission (via infection from living and dead hosts in the community) and hospital-based transmission (via contaminated syringe) to the overall basic reproduction number, R0 (see Text S3). We found that the overall R0 was 4.71 (95% CI: 3.92–5.66) at the onset of the epidemic. Most of this number was the result of hospital-based transmission, although we found evidence that the person-to-person basic reproduction number was above 1 (Table 3).

Bottom Line: The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: anton.camacho@lshtm.ac.uk.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus