Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.
Bottom Line: The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: email@example.com.Show MeSH
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Mentions: In our analysis, we used a line list of 262 cases, taken from the original epidemiological investigations (Breman et al., 1978; Report of an International Commission, 1978). The data (Supplementary File S1) reported: date of disease onset; outcome (death/recovery); date of outcome; and likely source of transmission (syringe during outpatient visit/person-to-person transmission/both/other). The progression of the outbreak is shown in Fig. 1. Of the reported 262 cases, 250 had a likely source of infection recorded and 8 dates of onset and outcome were missing (Table S1). We used the line list to compile four daily time series: onset of disease following hospital infection via syringe (87 cases in total); onset of disease following person-to-person infection (140 cases in total); reported deaths (248 cases in total); and reported recoveries (11 cases in total).
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: firstname.lastname@example.org.