Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.
Bottom Line: By fitting a mathematical model to time series stratified by disease onset, outcome and source of infection, we were able to estimate several epidemiological quantities that have previously proved challenging to measure, including the contribution of hospital and community infection to transmission.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: email@example.com.Show MeSH
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Mentions: In our analysis, we used a line list of 262 cases, taken from the original epidemiological investigations (Breman et al., 1978; Report of an International Commission, 1978). The data (Supplementary File S1) reported: date of disease onset; outcome (death/recovery); date of outcome; and likely source of transmission (syringe during outpatient visit/person-to-person transmission/both/other). The progression of the outbreak is shown in Fig. 1. Of the reported 262 cases, 250 had a likely source of infection recorded and 8 dates of onset and outcome were missing (Table S1). We used the line list to compile four daily time series: onset of disease following hospital infection via syringe (87 cases in total); onset of disease following person-to-person infection (140 cases in total); reported deaths (248 cases in total); and reported recoveries (11 cases in total).
Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: firstname.lastname@example.org.