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Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.

Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Breman J, Piot P, Edmunds WJ - Epidemics (2014)

Bottom Line: The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: anton.camacho@lshtm.ac.uk.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Daily incidence time series of Ebola virus disease onsets in 1976. Cases are coloured by route of transmission, as reported by the epidemiological investigation team (Breman et al., 1978). ‘Both’ indicates infections that could have come from syringe or person-to-person transmission; ‘other’ denotes alternative infection routes (mainly congenital). The dotted line corresponds to the hospital closure date (30th September). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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fig0005: Daily incidence time series of Ebola virus disease onsets in 1976. Cases are coloured by route of transmission, as reported by the epidemiological investigation team (Breman et al., 1978). ‘Both’ indicates infections that could have come from syringe or person-to-person transmission; ‘other’ denotes alternative infection routes (mainly congenital). The dotted line corresponds to the hospital closure date (30th September). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

Mentions: In our analysis, we used a line list of 262 cases, taken from the original epidemiological investigations (Breman et al., 1978; Report of an International Commission, 1978). The data (Supplementary File S1) reported: date of disease onset; outcome (death/recovery); date of outcome; and likely source of transmission (syringe during outpatient visit/person-to-person transmission/both/other). The progression of the outbreak is shown in Fig. 1. Of the reported 262 cases, 250 had a likely source of infection recorded and 8 dates of onset and outcome were missing (Table S1). We used the line list to compile four daily time series: onset of disease following hospital infection via syringe (87 cases in total); onset of disease following person-to-person infection (140 cases in total); reported deaths (248 cases in total); and reported recoveries (11 cases in total).


Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease.

Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Funk S, Breman J, Piot P, Edmunds WJ - Epidemics (2014)

Daily incidence time series of Ebola virus disease onsets in 1976. Cases are coloured by route of transmission, as reported by the epidemiological investigation team (Breman et al., 1978). ‘Both’ indicates infections that could have come from syringe or person-to-person transmission; ‘other’ denotes alternative infection routes (mainly congenital). The dotted line corresponds to the hospital closure date (30th September). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
© Copyright Policy - CC BY-NC-ND
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4255970&req=5

fig0005: Daily incidence time series of Ebola virus disease onsets in 1976. Cases are coloured by route of transmission, as reported by the epidemiological investigation team (Breman et al., 1978). ‘Both’ indicates infections that could have come from syringe or person-to-person transmission; ‘other’ denotes alternative infection routes (mainly congenital). The dotted line corresponds to the hospital closure date (30th September). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Mentions: In our analysis, we used a line list of 262 cases, taken from the original epidemiological investigations (Breman et al., 1978; Report of an International Commission, 1978). The data (Supplementary File S1) reported: date of disease onset; outcome (death/recovery); date of outcome; and likely source of transmission (syringe during outpatient visit/person-to-person transmission/both/other). The progression of the outbreak is shown in Fig. 1. Of the reported 262 cases, 250 had a likely source of infection recorded and 8 dates of onset and outcome were missing (Table S1). We used the line list to compile four daily time series: onset of disease following hospital infection via syringe (87 cases in total); onset of disease following person-to-person infection (140 cases in total); reported deaths (248 cases in total); and reported recoveries (11 cases in total).

Bottom Line: The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014.Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92-2.11) in the early part of the outbreak.Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: anton.camacho@lshtm.ac.uk.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus