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Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012.

Zhang WY, Wang LY, Liu YX, Yin WW, Hu WB, Magalhaes RJ, Ding F, Sun HL, Zhou H, Li SL, Haque U, Tong SL, Glass GE, Bi P, Clements AC, Liu QY, Li CY - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2014)

Bottom Line: In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005-2012 in mainland China.Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Disease Control and Prevention, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures.

Methods: Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.

Results: A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005-2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

Conclusions: This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005-2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases in mainland China.
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pntd-0003344-g001: Temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases in mainland China.

Mentions: A total of 100,868 HFRS cases were reported in 2,116 counties during 2005–2012 from a total of 2,922 counties. The monthly and annual variations of HFRS cases during the study period had a non-linear trend for HFRS cases in China, with bimodal seasonal distribution (Figure 1). HFRS decreased from 2005 to 2009 then increased after 2010. HFRS cases occurred throughout the year but had two seasonal peaks in June and November-December. These peaks accounted for 9.12% and 31.07% of cases respectively. The annual incidence rate of HFRS varied from 0 to 45.55/100,000 at the county level. Based on the smoothed estimates of incidence, HFRS varied geographically across the country, with northeastern China showing the highest overall risk (Figure 2).


Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012.

Zhang WY, Wang LY, Liu YX, Yin WW, Hu WB, Magalhaes RJ, Ding F, Sun HL, Zhou H, Li SL, Haque U, Tong SL, Glass GE, Bi P, Clements AC, Liu QY, Li CY - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2014)

Temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases in mainland China.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4239011&req=5

pntd-0003344-g001: Temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome cases in mainland China.
Mentions: A total of 100,868 HFRS cases were reported in 2,116 counties during 2005–2012 from a total of 2,922 counties. The monthly and annual variations of HFRS cases during the study period had a non-linear trend for HFRS cases in China, with bimodal seasonal distribution (Figure 1). HFRS decreased from 2005 to 2009 then increased after 2010. HFRS cases occurred throughout the year but had two seasonal peaks in June and November-December. These peaks accounted for 9.12% and 31.07% of cases respectively. The annual incidence rate of HFRS varied from 0 to 45.55/100,000 at the county level. Based on the smoothed estimates of incidence, HFRS varied geographically across the country, with northeastern China showing the highest overall risk (Figure 2).

Bottom Line: In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005-2012 in mainland China.Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute of Disease Control and Prevention, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing, People's Republic of China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures.

Methods: Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences.

Results: A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005-2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties.

Conclusions: This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005-2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus