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An agent-based model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae.

Arifin SM, Zhou Y, Davis GJ, Gentile JE, Madey GR, Collins FH - Malar. J. (2014)

Bottom Line: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles.A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages.The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA. niazarifin@gmail.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: Agent-based models (ABMs) have been used to model the behaviour of individual mosquitoes and other aspects of malaria. In this paper, a conceptual entomological model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae and the agent-based implementations derived from it are described. Hypothetical vector control interventions (HVCIs) are implemented to target specific activities in the mosquito life cycle, and their impacts are evaluated.

Methods: The core model is described in terms of the complete An. gambiae mosquito life cycle. Primary features include the development and mortality rates in different aquatic and adult stages, the aquatic habitats and oviposition. The density- and age-dependent larval and adult mortality rates (vector senescence) allow the model to capture the age-dependent aspects of the mosquito biology. Details of hypothetical interventions are also described.

Results: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles. Thus, these stages may be the most effective points of target for newly developed and novel interventions. A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages. It is emphasized that although the model described in this paper is designed specifically around the mosquito An. gambiae, it could effectively apply to many other major malaria vectors in the world (including the three most efficient nominal anopheline species An. gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles arabiensis) by incorporating a variety of factors (seasonality cycles, rainfall, humidity, etc.). Thus, the model can essentially be treated as a generic Anopheles model, offering an excellent framework for such extensions. The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

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Impact ofBMSForagingandBMDRestingon abundance and potentially infectious female, applied in isolation and in combination. (a) and (b) depict abundance and PIF, respectively. Both HVCIs are applied in isolation with C =50% and C =75%, and in combination with C =50% each, with killing K being fixed at 50%. Each colour-coded plot represents a specific case of isolated or combined application, with colour keys presented in the legend. The x-axis denotes simulation time (in days), and the y-axis denotes abundance or PIF. The warm-up period is omitted from the results.
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Fig7: Impact ofBMSForagingandBMDRestingon abundance and potentially infectious female, applied in isolation and in combination. (a) and (b) depict abundance and PIF, respectively. Both HVCIs are applied in isolation with C =50% and C =75%, and in combination with C =50% each, with killing K being fixed at 50%. Each colour-coded plot represents a specific case of isolated or combined application, with colour keys presented in the legend. The x-axis denotes simulation time (in days), and the y-axis denotes abundance or PIF. The warm-up period is omitted from the results.

Mentions: The results of applying HVCIs in isolation and in combination are shown in Figures 7 and8. Figure 7 depicts the impact of applying BMSForaging and BMDResting (which correspond to ITNs and IRS, respectively) with varying levels of coverage (C). Both HVCIs are applied first in isolation with C =50% and C =75%, and then in combination with C =50% each, with killing K being fixed at 50%. As shown in Figure 7a, the combined case of BMSForaging, BMDResting, C =50% reduces abundance by 30 and 15% more than those obtained by the isolated cases of BMSForaging, C =50% and BMDResting, C =50%, respectively. With PIF, as shown in Figure 7b, the combined case achieves approximately 97% reduction. In both populations, an interesting synergistic effect is also observed: the combined case, with C =50%, performs better than both HVCIs with higher coverages (C =75%).Figure 7


An agent-based model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae.

Arifin SM, Zhou Y, Davis GJ, Gentile JE, Madey GR, Collins FH - Malar. J. (2014)

Impact ofBMSForagingandBMDRestingon abundance and potentially infectious female, applied in isolation and in combination. (a) and (b) depict abundance and PIF, respectively. Both HVCIs are applied in isolation with C =50% and C =75%, and in combination with C =50% each, with killing K being fixed at 50%. Each colour-coded plot represents a specific case of isolated or combined application, with colour keys presented in the legend. The x-axis denotes simulation time (in days), and the y-axis denotes abundance or PIF. The warm-up period is omitted from the results.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4233045&req=5

Fig7: Impact ofBMSForagingandBMDRestingon abundance and potentially infectious female, applied in isolation and in combination. (a) and (b) depict abundance and PIF, respectively. Both HVCIs are applied in isolation with C =50% and C =75%, and in combination with C =50% each, with killing K being fixed at 50%. Each colour-coded plot represents a specific case of isolated or combined application, with colour keys presented in the legend. The x-axis denotes simulation time (in days), and the y-axis denotes abundance or PIF. The warm-up period is omitted from the results.
Mentions: The results of applying HVCIs in isolation and in combination are shown in Figures 7 and8. Figure 7 depicts the impact of applying BMSForaging and BMDResting (which correspond to ITNs and IRS, respectively) with varying levels of coverage (C). Both HVCIs are applied first in isolation with C =50% and C =75%, and then in combination with C =50% each, with killing K being fixed at 50%. As shown in Figure 7a, the combined case of BMSForaging, BMDResting, C =50% reduces abundance by 30 and 15% more than those obtained by the isolated cases of BMSForaging, C =50% and BMDResting, C =50%, respectively. With PIF, as shown in Figure 7b, the combined case achieves approximately 97% reduction. In both populations, an interesting synergistic effect is also observed: the combined case, with C =50%, performs better than both HVCIs with higher coverages (C =75%).Figure 7

Bottom Line: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles.A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages.The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA. niazarifin@gmail.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: Agent-based models (ABMs) have been used to model the behaviour of individual mosquitoes and other aspects of malaria. In this paper, a conceptual entomological model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae and the agent-based implementations derived from it are described. Hypothetical vector control interventions (HVCIs) are implemented to target specific activities in the mosquito life cycle, and their impacts are evaluated.

Methods: The core model is described in terms of the complete An. gambiae mosquito life cycle. Primary features include the development and mortality rates in different aquatic and adult stages, the aquatic habitats and oviposition. The density- and age-dependent larval and adult mortality rates (vector senescence) allow the model to capture the age-dependent aspects of the mosquito biology. Details of hypothetical interventions are also described.

Results: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles. Thus, these stages may be the most effective points of target for newly developed and novel interventions. A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages. It is emphasized that although the model described in this paper is designed specifically around the mosquito An. gambiae, it could effectively apply to many other major malaria vectors in the world (including the three most efficient nominal anopheline species An. gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles arabiensis) by incorporating a variety of factors (seasonality cycles, rainfall, humidity, etc.). Thus, the model can essentially be treated as a generic Anopheles model, offering an excellent framework for such extensions. The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus