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An agent-based model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae.

Arifin SM, Zhou Y, Davis GJ, Gentile JE, Madey GR, Collins FH - Malar. J. (2014)

Bottom Line: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles.A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages.The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA. niazarifin@gmail.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: Agent-based models (ABMs) have been used to model the behaviour of individual mosquitoes and other aspects of malaria. In this paper, a conceptual entomological model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae and the agent-based implementations derived from it are described. Hypothetical vector control interventions (HVCIs) are implemented to target specific activities in the mosquito life cycle, and their impacts are evaluated.

Methods: The core model is described in terms of the complete An. gambiae mosquito life cycle. Primary features include the development and mortality rates in different aquatic and adult stages, the aquatic habitats and oviposition. The density- and age-dependent larval and adult mortality rates (vector senescence) allow the model to capture the age-dependent aspects of the mosquito biology. Details of hypothetical interventions are also described.

Results: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles. Thus, these stages may be the most effective points of target for newly developed and novel interventions. A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages. It is emphasized that although the model described in this paper is designed specifically around the mosquito An. gambiae, it could effectively apply to many other major malaria vectors in the world (including the three most efficient nominal anopheline species An. gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles arabiensis) by incorporating a variety of factors (seasonality cycles, rainfall, humidity, etc.). Thus, the model can essentially be treated as a generic Anopheles model, offering an excellent framework for such extensions. The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

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Life cycle of mosquito agents in the agent-based model. The An. gambiae mosquito life cycle consists of aquatic and adult phases. The aquatic phase consists of three aquatic stages: Egg (E), Larva (L), and Pupa (P). The adult phase consists of five adult stages: Immature adult (IA), Mate seeking (MS), Blood meal seeking (BMS), Blood meal digesting (BMD), and Gravid (G). Each oval represents a stage in the model. Permissible time transition windows from one stage to another are shown next to the corresponding stage transition arrows as rounded rectangles (e.g., 18.00-06.00). Note that adult males, once reaching MS stage, remain forever in that stage until they die; adult females cycle through obtaining blood meals (in BMS stage), developing eggs (in BMD stage), and ovipositing the eggs (in G stage) until they die. The two resource-seeking adult stages (BMS and G) are marked in red. Adapted and updated from[4].
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Fig1: Life cycle of mosquito agents in the agent-based model. The An. gambiae mosquito life cycle consists of aquatic and adult phases. The aquatic phase consists of three aquatic stages: Egg (E), Larva (L), and Pupa (P). The adult phase consists of five adult stages: Immature adult (IA), Mate seeking (MS), Blood meal seeking (BMS), Blood meal digesting (BMD), and Gravid (G). Each oval represents a stage in the model. Permissible time transition windows from one stage to another are shown next to the corresponding stage transition arrows as rounded rectangles (e.g., 18.00-06.00). Note that adult males, once reaching MS stage, remain forever in that stage until they die; adult females cycle through obtaining blood meals (in BMS stage), developing eggs (in BMD stage), and ovipositing the eggs (in G stage) until they die. The two resource-seeking adult stages (BMS and G) are marked in red. Adapted and updated from[4].

Mentions: The complete An. gambiae mosquito life cycle consists of aquatic and adult phases, as shown in Figure 1. The aquatic phase consists of three aquatic stages: egg, larva and pupa. The adult phase consists of five adult stages: immature adult, mate seeking, blood meal seeking, blood meal digesting, and gravid. The development and mortality rates in all eight stages of the life cycle are described in terms of the aquatic and adult mosquito populations. All symbols and parameters used in the core model are summarized in Table 2.Figure 1


An agent-based model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae.

Arifin SM, Zhou Y, Davis GJ, Gentile JE, Madey GR, Collins FH - Malar. J. (2014)

Life cycle of mosquito agents in the agent-based model. The An. gambiae mosquito life cycle consists of aquatic and adult phases. The aquatic phase consists of three aquatic stages: Egg (E), Larva (L), and Pupa (P). The adult phase consists of five adult stages: Immature adult (IA), Mate seeking (MS), Blood meal seeking (BMS), Blood meal digesting (BMD), and Gravid (G). Each oval represents a stage in the model. Permissible time transition windows from one stage to another are shown next to the corresponding stage transition arrows as rounded rectangles (e.g., 18.00-06.00). Note that adult males, once reaching MS stage, remain forever in that stage until they die; adult females cycle through obtaining blood meals (in BMS stage), developing eggs (in BMD stage), and ovipositing the eggs (in G stage) until they die. The two resource-seeking adult stages (BMS and G) are marked in red. Adapted and updated from[4].
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License 1 - License 2
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4233045&req=5

Fig1: Life cycle of mosquito agents in the agent-based model. The An. gambiae mosquito life cycle consists of aquatic and adult phases. The aquatic phase consists of three aquatic stages: Egg (E), Larva (L), and Pupa (P). The adult phase consists of five adult stages: Immature adult (IA), Mate seeking (MS), Blood meal seeking (BMS), Blood meal digesting (BMD), and Gravid (G). Each oval represents a stage in the model. Permissible time transition windows from one stage to another are shown next to the corresponding stage transition arrows as rounded rectangles (e.g., 18.00-06.00). Note that adult males, once reaching MS stage, remain forever in that stage until they die; adult females cycle through obtaining blood meals (in BMS stage), developing eggs (in BMD stage), and ovipositing the eggs (in G stage) until they die. The two resource-seeking adult stages (BMS and G) are marked in red. Adapted and updated from[4].
Mentions: The complete An. gambiae mosquito life cycle consists of aquatic and adult phases, as shown in Figure 1. The aquatic phase consists of three aquatic stages: egg, larva and pupa. The adult phase consists of five adult stages: immature adult, mate seeking, blood meal seeking, blood meal digesting, and gravid. The development and mortality rates in all eight stages of the life cycle are described in terms of the aquatic and adult mosquito populations. All symbols and parameters used in the core model are summarized in Table 2.Figure 1

Bottom Line: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles.A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages.The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA. niazarifin@gmail.com.

ABSTRACT

Background: Agent-based models (ABMs) have been used to model the behaviour of individual mosquitoes and other aspects of malaria. In this paper, a conceptual entomological model of the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae and the agent-based implementations derived from it are described. Hypothetical vector control interventions (HVCIs) are implemented to target specific activities in the mosquito life cycle, and their impacts are evaluated.

Methods: The core model is described in terms of the complete An. gambiae mosquito life cycle. Primary features include the development and mortality rates in different aquatic and adult stages, the aquatic habitats and oviposition. The density- and age-dependent larval and adult mortality rates (vector senescence) allow the model to capture the age-dependent aspects of the mosquito biology. Details of hypothetical interventions are also described.

Results: Results show that with varying coverage and temperature ranges, the hypothetical interventions targeting the gonotrophic cycle stages produce higher impacts than the rest in reducing the potentially infectious female (PIF) mosquito populations, due to their multi-hour mortality impacts and their applicability at multiple gonotrophic cycles. Thus, these stages may be the most effective points of target for newly developed and novel interventions. A combined HVCI with low coverage can produce additive synergistic impacts and can be more effective than isolated HVCIs with comparatively higher coverages. It is emphasized that although the model described in this paper is designed specifically around the mosquito An. gambiae, it could effectively apply to many other major malaria vectors in the world (including the three most efficient nominal anopheline species An. gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles arabiensis) by incorporating a variety of factors (seasonality cycles, rainfall, humidity, etc.). Thus, the model can essentially be treated as a generic Anopheles model, offering an excellent framework for such extensions. The utility of the core model has also been demonstrated by several other applications, each of which investigates well-defined biological research questions across a variety of dimensions (including spatial models, insecticide resistance, and sterile insect techniques).

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus