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Mosquito surveillance revealed lagged effects of mosquito abundance on mosquito-borne disease transmission: a retrospective study in Zhejiang, China.

Guo S, Ling F, Hou J, Wang J, Fu G, Gong Z - PLoS ONE (2014)

Bottom Line: In this study, the associations between the time-lagged mosquito capture data and MBDs incidence over five years were used to examine the potential effects of mosquito abundance on patterns of MBDs epidemiology in Zhejiang during 2008-2012.The rise of mosquito abundance with a lag of 0-2 months increased the risk of human MBDs infection in Zhejiang.Our study provides evidence that mosquito monitoring could be a useful early warning tool for the occurrence and transmission of MBDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China.

ABSTRACT
Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) are still threats to public health in Zhejiang. In this study, the associations between the time-lagged mosquito capture data and MBDs incidence over five years were used to examine the potential effects of mosquito abundance on patterns of MBDs epidemiology in Zhejiang during 2008-2012. Light traps were used to collect adult mosquitoes at 11 cities. Correlation tests with and without time lag were performed to investigate the correlations between MBDs incidence rates and mosquito abundance by month. Selected MBDs consisted of Japanese encephalitis (JE), dengue fever (DF) and malaria. A Poisson regression analysis was performed by using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, and the most parsimonious model was selected based on the quasi-likelihood based information criterion (QICu). We identified five mosquito species and the constituent ratio of Culex pipiens pallens, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles sinensis and Armigeres subalbatus was 66.73%, 21.47%, 6.72%, 2.83% and 2.25%, respectively. The correlation analysis without and with time lag showed that Culex mosquito abundance at a lag of 0 or 1 month was positively correlated with JE incidence during 2008-2012, Ae. albopictus abundance at a lag of 1 month was positively correlated with DF incidence in 2009, and An. sinensis abundance at a lag of 0-2 months was positively correlated with malaria incidence during 2008-2010. The Poisson regression analysis showed each 0.1 rise of monthly mosquito abundance corresponded to a positive increase of MBD cases for the period of 2008-2012. The rise of mosquito abundance with a lag of 0-2 months increased the risk of human MBDs infection in Zhejiang. Our study provides evidence that mosquito monitoring could be a useful early warning tool for the occurrence and transmission of MBDs.

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Monthly mosquito abundance and MBDs incidence rates.(a) Culex mosquito abundance and JE incidence rates; (b) Ae. albopictus abundance and DF incidence rates; (c) total mosquito abundance and DF incidence rates; (d) An. sinensis abundance and malaria incidence rates.
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pone-0112975-g003: Monthly mosquito abundance and MBDs incidence rates.(a) Culex mosquito abundance and JE incidence rates; (b) Ae. albopictus abundance and DF incidence rates; (c) total mosquito abundance and DF incidence rates; (d) An. sinensis abundance and malaria incidence rates.

Mentions: The mosquito abundance changes and incidence of MBDs by month are shown in Figure 3, selected MBDs consist of JE, DF and malaria. The shapes of mosquito abundance changes by month were represented as unimodal or bimodal type curves. There were noticeable lagged effects between monthly mosquito abundance and monthly incidence of MBDs, and peak values of mosquito abundance and MBDs incidence occurred in the same month or delayed by one or two months (Figure 3, Table 3). For JE and Culex mosquito abundance, they showed statistically significant correlation at 0-month lag in 2009, 2011 and 2012 (2009: rS = 0.846, p<0.01; 2011: rS = 0.723, p<0.05; 2012: rS = 0.791, p<0.05) performed by the Spearman's correlation analysis, and there were positive correlations between JE incidence and mosquito abundance in 2008 and 2010 at a lag of one month (2008: rS = 0.939, p<0.001; 2010: rS = 0.753, p<0.05). For DF and Ae. albopictus abundance, just the local dengue outbreak caused by imported cases in 2009 was analyzed. The peak value of dengue incidence was two months behind the peak value of Ae. albopictus abundance, and there was positive correlation between them at a lag of one month (rS = 0.927, p<0.001) performed by the Spearman's correlation analysis. For malaria and An. sinensis abundance, there were positive correlations between them at 0-month lag in 2010 (rP = 0.838, p<0.01), at a lag of one month in 2008 (rP = 0.910, p<0.01) and at a lag of two months in 2009 (rP = 0.831, p<0.05) performed by Pearson's correlation analysis.


Mosquito surveillance revealed lagged effects of mosquito abundance on mosquito-borne disease transmission: a retrospective study in Zhejiang, China.

Guo S, Ling F, Hou J, Wang J, Fu G, Gong Z - PLoS ONE (2014)

Monthly mosquito abundance and MBDs incidence rates.(a) Culex mosquito abundance and JE incidence rates; (b) Ae. albopictus abundance and DF incidence rates; (c) total mosquito abundance and DF incidence rates; (d) An. sinensis abundance and malaria incidence rates.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4231081&req=5

pone-0112975-g003: Monthly mosquito abundance and MBDs incidence rates.(a) Culex mosquito abundance and JE incidence rates; (b) Ae. albopictus abundance and DF incidence rates; (c) total mosquito abundance and DF incidence rates; (d) An. sinensis abundance and malaria incidence rates.
Mentions: The mosquito abundance changes and incidence of MBDs by month are shown in Figure 3, selected MBDs consist of JE, DF and malaria. The shapes of mosquito abundance changes by month were represented as unimodal or bimodal type curves. There were noticeable lagged effects between monthly mosquito abundance and monthly incidence of MBDs, and peak values of mosquito abundance and MBDs incidence occurred in the same month or delayed by one or two months (Figure 3, Table 3). For JE and Culex mosquito abundance, they showed statistically significant correlation at 0-month lag in 2009, 2011 and 2012 (2009: rS = 0.846, p<0.01; 2011: rS = 0.723, p<0.05; 2012: rS = 0.791, p<0.05) performed by the Spearman's correlation analysis, and there were positive correlations between JE incidence and mosquito abundance in 2008 and 2010 at a lag of one month (2008: rS = 0.939, p<0.001; 2010: rS = 0.753, p<0.05). For DF and Ae. albopictus abundance, just the local dengue outbreak caused by imported cases in 2009 was analyzed. The peak value of dengue incidence was two months behind the peak value of Ae. albopictus abundance, and there was positive correlation between them at a lag of one month (rS = 0.927, p<0.001) performed by the Spearman's correlation analysis. For malaria and An. sinensis abundance, there were positive correlations between them at 0-month lag in 2010 (rP = 0.838, p<0.01), at a lag of one month in 2008 (rP = 0.910, p<0.01) and at a lag of two months in 2009 (rP = 0.831, p<0.05) performed by Pearson's correlation analysis.

Bottom Line: In this study, the associations between the time-lagged mosquito capture data and MBDs incidence over five years were used to examine the potential effects of mosquito abundance on patterns of MBDs epidemiology in Zhejiang during 2008-2012.The rise of mosquito abundance with a lag of 0-2 months increased the risk of human MBDs infection in Zhejiang.Our study provides evidence that mosquito monitoring could be a useful early warning tool for the occurrence and transmission of MBDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China.

ABSTRACT
Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) are still threats to public health in Zhejiang. In this study, the associations between the time-lagged mosquito capture data and MBDs incidence over five years were used to examine the potential effects of mosquito abundance on patterns of MBDs epidemiology in Zhejiang during 2008-2012. Light traps were used to collect adult mosquitoes at 11 cities. Correlation tests with and without time lag were performed to investigate the correlations between MBDs incidence rates and mosquito abundance by month. Selected MBDs consisted of Japanese encephalitis (JE), dengue fever (DF) and malaria. A Poisson regression analysis was performed by using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, and the most parsimonious model was selected based on the quasi-likelihood based information criterion (QICu). We identified five mosquito species and the constituent ratio of Culex pipiens pallens, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles sinensis and Armigeres subalbatus was 66.73%, 21.47%, 6.72%, 2.83% and 2.25%, respectively. The correlation analysis without and with time lag showed that Culex mosquito abundance at a lag of 0 or 1 month was positively correlated with JE incidence during 2008-2012, Ae. albopictus abundance at a lag of 1 month was positively correlated with DF incidence in 2009, and An. sinensis abundance at a lag of 0-2 months was positively correlated with malaria incidence during 2008-2010. The Poisson regression analysis showed each 0.1 rise of monthly mosquito abundance corresponded to a positive increase of MBD cases for the period of 2008-2012. The rise of mosquito abundance with a lag of 0-2 months increased the risk of human MBDs infection in Zhejiang. Our study provides evidence that mosquito monitoring could be a useful early warning tool for the occurrence and transmission of MBDs.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus