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Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

Szyniszewska AM, Tatem AJ - PLoS ONE (2014)

Bottom Line: Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online.Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December.Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Global environmental suitability for C. capitata occurrence as predicted by MaxEnt model.Black triangles represent presence points used in the modeling. Blue, purple and red colors show high confidence in predicted suitability, while yellow represents low confidence and predicted absence.
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pone-0111582-g002: Global environmental suitability for C. capitata occurrence as predicted by MaxEnt model.Black triangles represent presence points used in the modeling. Blue, purple and red colors show high confidence in predicted suitability, while yellow represents low confidence and predicted absence.

Mentions: The annual Medfly niche suitability model, produced using all geolocated occurrence records since 1980, is presented in Figure 2. The largest suitable areas for Medfly presence are located in South America, east and south Africa and eastern Asia. Other suitable areas appear across a variety of climate zones, including warm temperate and semi-tropical and tropical, mostly in coastal areas. This incudes the Mediterranean basin, Gulf of Mexico, western coast of South America and coastal areas of India and Australia. The model prediction performs significantly better than random with a binomial test result of p<3.9−40. The AUC score for the training and testing datasets is 0.882 and 0.878 respectively, representing strong predictive performance, given the fractional predicted area of 0.307 (Table 3).


Global assessment of seasonal potential distribution of Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

Szyniszewska AM, Tatem AJ - PLoS ONE (2014)

Global environmental suitability for C. capitata occurrence as predicted by MaxEnt model.Black triangles represent presence points used in the modeling. Blue, purple and red colors show high confidence in predicted suitability, while yellow represents low confidence and predicted absence.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4222914&req=5

pone-0111582-g002: Global environmental suitability for C. capitata occurrence as predicted by MaxEnt model.Black triangles represent presence points used in the modeling. Blue, purple and red colors show high confidence in predicted suitability, while yellow represents low confidence and predicted absence.
Mentions: The annual Medfly niche suitability model, produced using all geolocated occurrence records since 1980, is presented in Figure 2. The largest suitable areas for Medfly presence are located in South America, east and south Africa and eastern Asia. Other suitable areas appear across a variety of climate zones, including warm temperate and semi-tropical and tropical, mostly in coastal areas. This incudes the Mediterranean basin, Gulf of Mexico, western coast of South America and coastal areas of India and Australia. The model prediction performs significantly better than random with a binomial test result of p<3.9−40. The AUC score for the training and testing datasets is 0.882 and 0.878 respectively, representing strong predictive performance, given the fractional predicted area of 0.307 (Table 3).

Bottom Line: Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online.Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December.Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) is one of the world's most economically damaging pests. It displays highly seasonal population dynamics, and the environmental conditions suitable for its abundance are not constant throughout the year in most places. An extensive literature search was performed to obtain the most comprehensive data on the historical and contemporary spatio-temporal occurrence of the pest globally. The database constructed contained 2328 unique geo-located entries on Medfly detection sites from 43 countries and nearly 500 unique localities, as well as information on hosts, life stages and capture method. Of these, 125 localities had information on the month when Medfly was recorded and these data were complemented by additional material found in comprehensive databases available online. Records from 1980 until present were used for medfly environmental niche modeling. Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt) and a set of seasonally varying environmental covariates were used to predict the fundamental niche of the Medfly on a global scale. Three seasonal maps were also produced: January-April, May-August and September-December. Models performed significantly better than random achieving high accuracy scores, indicating a good discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for the presence of the species.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus