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Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.

Pinkernell S, Beszteri B - Ecol Evol (2014)

Bottom Line: Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality.We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection.Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung Am Handelshafen 12, 27570, Bremerhaven, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

No MeSH data available.


Potential distribution of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis (monthly model): mean (by color) and standard deviation (as black contour lines) of projections to five different climate model outputs. (A) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset B; (B) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset C; (C) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset B; (D) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset C. Red dots represent the presence-only observation records upon which the model is based. Average position of the Subantarctic Front is shown by a black line.
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fig05: Potential distribution of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis (monthly model): mean (by color) and standard deviation (as black contour lines) of projections to five different climate model outputs. (A) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset B; (B) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset C; (C) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset B; (D) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset C. Red dots represent the presence-only observation records upon which the model is based. Average position of the Subantarctic Front is shown by a black line.

Mentions: Projections of the monthly Maxent model based on datasets A and B on summer and winter environmental conditions modeled for the year 2100 (Fig. 5) showed a decreased distribution area, along with an overall decrease in Maxent scores throughout (projections for all 12 months are provided in Figs. S2, S5, and S8 for RCP4.5 and S3, S6, and S9 for RCP8.5).


Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.

Pinkernell S, Beszteri B - Ecol Evol (2014)

Potential distribution of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis (monthly model): mean (by color) and standard deviation (as black contour lines) of projections to five different climate model outputs. (A) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset B; (B) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset C; (C) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset B; (D) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset C. Red dots represent the presence-only observation records upon which the model is based. Average position of the Subantarctic Front is shown by a black line.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4222203&req=5

fig05: Potential distribution of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis (monthly model): mean (by color) and standard deviation (as black contour lines) of projections to five different climate model outputs. (A) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset B; (B) RCP 8.5 scenario, February 2100, based on dataset C; (C) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset B; (D) RCP 8.5 scenario, August 2100, based on dataset C. Red dots represent the presence-only observation records upon which the model is based. Average position of the Subantarctic Front is shown by a black line.
Mentions: Projections of the monthly Maxent model based on datasets A and B on summer and winter environmental conditions modeled for the year 2100 (Fig. 5) showed a decreased distribution area, along with an overall decrease in Maxent scores throughout (projections for all 12 months are provided in Figs. S2, S5, and S8 for RCP4.5 and S3, S6, and S9 for RCP8.5).

Bottom Line: Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality.We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection.Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung Am Handelshafen 12, 27570, Bremerhaven, Germany.

ABSTRACT
Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

No MeSH data available.