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Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

Chang T, Hansen AJ, Piekielek N - PLoS ONE (2014)

Bottom Line: For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range.Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios.Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

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Evaluation of the standard deviation  for percent suitable habitat area by RCP scenario.
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pone-0111669-g010: Evaluation of the standard deviation for percent suitable habitat area by RCP scenario.

Mentions: CNRM-CM5, CMCC-CM, and CESM1-BGC projections showed the highest probabilities for suitable habitat area at the end of the century, while HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, and HadGEM2-CC indicated the lowest probabilities. The standard deviations per year for both RCPs progressively decreased over time (Fig. 10). Among climate scenarios, standard deviations for both RCPs display low variability for the first five projection years and a rapid increase of variability peaking at 2043. For RCP 4.5, high variability existed primarily due to differing climate projections by models HadGEM2-AO and HadGEM2-CC, resulting in uncertainties in probabilities of presence fluctuating between 8 and 15% until 2068, after which variability was between 6–8%. Under RCP 8.5, standard deviations between GCMs were consistently lower than RCP 4.5. Regardless of the GCM, by 2079 the areas of suitable habitat converged to similar values.


Patterns and variability of projected bioclimatic habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Area.

Chang T, Hansen AJ, Piekielek N - PLoS ONE (2014)

Evaluation of the standard deviation  for percent suitable habitat area by RCP scenario.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4221071&req=5

pone-0111669-g010: Evaluation of the standard deviation for percent suitable habitat area by RCP scenario.
Mentions: CNRM-CM5, CMCC-CM, and CESM1-BGC projections showed the highest probabilities for suitable habitat area at the end of the century, while HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, and HadGEM2-CC indicated the lowest probabilities. The standard deviations per year for both RCPs progressively decreased over time (Fig. 10). Among climate scenarios, standard deviations for both RCPs display low variability for the first five projection years and a rapid increase of variability peaking at 2043. For RCP 4.5, high variability existed primarily due to differing climate projections by models HadGEM2-AO and HadGEM2-CC, resulting in uncertainties in probabilities of presence fluctuating between 8 and 15% until 2068, after which variability was between 6–8%. Under RCP 8.5, standard deviations between GCMs were consistently lower than RCP 4.5. Regardless of the GCM, by 2079 the areas of suitable habitat converged to similar values.

Bottom Line: For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range.Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios.Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions regarding the magnitude and direction of modeled suitable habitat area, nine bias-corrected statistically down-scaled GCMs were utilized to understand the uncertainty associated with modeled projections. P.albicaulis was modeled using a Random Forests algorithm for the 1980-2010 climate period and showed strong presence/absence separations by summer maximum temperatures and springtime snowpack. Patterns of projected habitat change by the end of the century suggested a constant decrease in suitable climate area from the 2010 baseline for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 4.5 climate forcing scenarios. Percent suitable climate area estimates ranged from 2-29% and 0.04-10% by 2099 for RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Habitat projections between GCMs displayed a decrease of variability over the 2010-2099 time period related to consistent warming above the 1910-2010 temperature normal after 2070 for all GCMs. A decreasing pattern of projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat area change was consistent across GCMs, despite strong differences in magnitude. Future ecological research in species distribution modeling should consider a full suite of GCM projections in the analysis to reduce extreme range contractions/expansions predictions. The results suggest that restoration strageties such as planting of seedlings and controlling competing vegetation may be necessary to maintain P.albicaulis in the GYA under the more extreme future climate scenarios.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus