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A differential equation model for the dynamics of youth gambling.

Do TS, Lee YS - Osong Public Health Res Perspect (2014)

Bottom Line: At-risk gambling among young adults has increased.The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics Education, Kwandong University, Kangreung, Korea.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16-24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.

Methods: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.

Results: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4-5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

Conclusion: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Results for young adults.
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fig3: Results for young adults.

Mentions: Using the data at T2, (N,A,P) = (253,36,16) as an initial condition, and the parameter values for young adults, it is clear from Figure 3a that the number of at-risk gamblers sharply increased, in strong agreement with data reported by Winters et al. [11, 27]. Figure 3b shows that the prevalence of problem gambling in young adults is approximately 4%, which is currently the national average.


A differential equation model for the dynamics of youth gambling.

Do TS, Lee YS - Osong Public Health Res Perspect (2014)

Results for young adults.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4215004&req=5

fig3: Results for young adults.
Mentions: Using the data at T2, (N,A,P) = (253,36,16) as an initial condition, and the parameter values for young adults, it is clear from Figure 3a that the number of at-risk gamblers sharply increased, in strong agreement with data reported by Winters et al. [11, 27]. Figure 3b shows that the prevalence of problem gambling in young adults is approximately 4%, which is currently the national average.

Bottom Line: At-risk gambling among young adults has increased.The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics Education, Kwandong University, Kangreung, Korea.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16-24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.

Methods: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.

Results: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4-5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

Conclusion: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus