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A differential equation model for the dynamics of youth gambling.

Do TS, Lee YS - Osong Public Health Res Perspect (2014)

Bottom Line: The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years.At-risk gambling among young adults has increased.The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics Education, Kwandong University, Kangreung, Korea.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16-24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.

Methods: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.

Results: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4-5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

Conclusion: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Results for young adults.
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fig3: Results for young adults.

Mentions: Using the data at T2, (N,A,P) = (253,36,16) as an initial condition, and the parameter values for young adults, it is clear from Figure 3a that the number of at-risk gamblers sharply increased, in strong agreement with data reported by Winters et al. [11, 27]. Figure 3b shows that the prevalence of problem gambling in young adults is approximately 4%, which is currently the national average.


A differential equation model for the dynamics of youth gambling.

Do TS, Lee YS - Osong Public Health Res Perspect (2014)

Results for young adults.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4215004&req=5

fig3: Results for young adults.
Mentions: Using the data at T2, (N,A,P) = (253,36,16) as an initial condition, and the parameter values for young adults, it is clear from Figure 3a that the number of at-risk gamblers sharply increased, in strong agreement with data reported by Winters et al. [11, 27]. Figure 3b shows that the prevalence of problem gambling in young adults is approximately 4%, which is currently the national average.

Bottom Line: The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years.At-risk gambling among young adults has increased.The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics Education, Kwandong University, Kangreung, Korea.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16-24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.

Methods: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.

Results: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4-5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

Conclusion: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus