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A differential equation model for the dynamics of youth gambling.

Do TS, Lee YS - Osong Public Health Res Perspect (2014)

Bottom Line: At-risk gambling among young adults has increased.The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics Education, Kwandong University, Kangreung, Korea.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16-24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.

Methods: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.

Results: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4-5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

Conclusion: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Schematic diagram of the model.
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Related In: Results  -  Collection

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fig1: Schematic diagram of the model.

Mentions: FigureĀ 1 summarizes the model in schematic form.


A differential equation model for the dynamics of youth gambling.

Do TS, Lee YS - Osong Public Health Res Perspect (2014)

Schematic diagram of the model.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4215004&req=5

fig1: Schematic diagram of the model.
Mentions: FigureĀ 1 summarizes the model in schematic form.

Bottom Line: At-risk gambling among young adults has increased.The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Mathematics Education, Kwandong University, Kangreung, Korea.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16-24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies.

Methods: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis.

Results: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4-5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention.

Conclusion: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus