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Effects of climate variability and accelerated forest thinning on watershed-scale runoff in southwestern USA ponderosa pine forests.

Robles MD, Marshall RM, O'Donnell F, Smith EB, Haney JA, Gori DF - PLoS ONE (2014)

Bottom Line: We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period.Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0-3%).Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Nature Conservancy Center for Science and Public Policy, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The recent mortality of up to 20% of forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States, along with declining stream flows and projected future water shortages, heightens the need to understand how management practices can enhance forest resilience and functioning under unprecedented scales of drought and wildfire. To address this challenge, a combination of mechanical thinning and fire treatments are planned for 238,000 hectares (588,000 acres) of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests across central Arizona, USA. Mechanical thinning can increase runoff at fine scales, as well as reduce fire risk and tree water stress during drought, but the effects of this practice have not been studied at scales commensurate with recent forest disturbances or under a highly variable climate. Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability in winter precipitation. We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period. The magnitude of this increase is similar to observed declines in snowpack for the region, suggesting that accelerated thinning may lessen runoff losses due to warming effects. Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0-3%). Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities. Results of this study and others suggest that accelerated forest thinning at large scales could improve the water balance and resilience of forests and sustain the ecosystem services they provide.

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Year to year variability in runoff increases from thinning in 4FRI project.Modeled increases in annual runoff associated with mechanical thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the first analysis area of the 4FRI project during the (a) drought and (b) pluvial that produced lowest and highest gains in runoff respectively. Top panes show increases in annual runoff in million m3/year. Solid black lines are output values from regression model; dotted lines and blue areas represent 90% confidence intervals. Bottom panes show corresponding winter precipitation values (Oct-Apr, mm) used as one of the independent variables to calculate runoff.
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pone-0111092-g008: Year to year variability in runoff increases from thinning in 4FRI project.Modeled increases in annual runoff associated with mechanical thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the first analysis area of the 4FRI project during the (a) drought and (b) pluvial that produced lowest and highest gains in runoff respectively. Top panes show increases in annual runoff in million m3/year. Solid black lines are output values from regression model; dotted lines and blue areas represent 90% confidence intervals. Bottom panes show corresponding winter precipitation values (Oct-Apr, mm) used as one of the independent variables to calculate runoff.

Mentions: Results from 26 scenarios with varying levels of winter precipitation showing increases in mean annual runoff associated with mechanical thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the first analysis area of the 4FRI project. In order to compare scenarios, only increases in mean annual runoff are shown. Annual variability in runoff for two of these scenarios is shown in Figure 8.


Effects of climate variability and accelerated forest thinning on watershed-scale runoff in southwestern USA ponderosa pine forests.

Robles MD, Marshall RM, O'Donnell F, Smith EB, Haney JA, Gori DF - PLoS ONE (2014)

Year to year variability in runoff increases from thinning in 4FRI project.Modeled increases in annual runoff associated with mechanical thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the first analysis area of the 4FRI project during the (a) drought and (b) pluvial that produced lowest and highest gains in runoff respectively. Top panes show increases in annual runoff in million m3/year. Solid black lines are output values from regression model; dotted lines and blue areas represent 90% confidence intervals. Bottom panes show corresponding winter precipitation values (Oct-Apr, mm) used as one of the independent variables to calculate runoff.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4206497&req=5

pone-0111092-g008: Year to year variability in runoff increases from thinning in 4FRI project.Modeled increases in annual runoff associated with mechanical thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the first analysis area of the 4FRI project during the (a) drought and (b) pluvial that produced lowest and highest gains in runoff respectively. Top panes show increases in annual runoff in million m3/year. Solid black lines are output values from regression model; dotted lines and blue areas represent 90% confidence intervals. Bottom panes show corresponding winter precipitation values (Oct-Apr, mm) used as one of the independent variables to calculate runoff.
Mentions: Results from 26 scenarios with varying levels of winter precipitation showing increases in mean annual runoff associated with mechanical thinning of ponderosa pine forests in the first analysis area of the 4FRI project. In order to compare scenarios, only increases in mean annual runoff are shown. Annual variability in runoff for two of these scenarios is shown in Figure 8.

Bottom Line: We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period.Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0-3%).Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: The Nature Conservancy Center for Science and Public Policy, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America.

ABSTRACT
The recent mortality of up to 20% of forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States, along with declining stream flows and projected future water shortages, heightens the need to understand how management practices can enhance forest resilience and functioning under unprecedented scales of drought and wildfire. To address this challenge, a combination of mechanical thinning and fire treatments are planned for 238,000 hectares (588,000 acres) of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests across central Arizona, USA. Mechanical thinning can increase runoff at fine scales, as well as reduce fire risk and tree water stress during drought, but the effects of this practice have not been studied at scales commensurate with recent forest disturbances or under a highly variable climate. Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability in winter precipitation. We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period. The magnitude of this increase is similar to observed declines in snowpack for the region, suggesting that accelerated thinning may lessen runoff losses due to warming effects. Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0-3%). Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities. Results of this study and others suggest that accelerated forest thinning at large scales could improve the water balance and resilience of forests and sustain the ecosystem services they provide.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus