Intra- and interseasonal autoregressive prediction of dengue outbreaks using local weather and regional climate for a tropical environment in Colombia.
Bottom Line: Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors-all of which are influenced by environmental factors.Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011.Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C--the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission.
Affiliation: Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina; Department of Social Sciences, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, Louisiana firstname.lastname@example.org.Show MeSH
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Mentions: Figure 8 shows the reported and model 3-predicted DPOP during the development (2001–2010) period. Overall, the model performed well (R2 = 0.846), but again, it significantly underpredicted dengue incidence just before and during the three most severe outbreaks. Next, all possible combinations of the potential interseasonal meteorological predictors were fitted with an AR(1) model using transfer functions (24 total models) and evaluated. Performance statistics are shown in Table 6 for the best model (hereafter model 4), which incorporates RHAVG, L18DAYS, and N4 information based on initial 4- to 6-month lags. The full prediction (transfer) equation is
Affiliation: Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina; Department of Social Sciences, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, Louisiana email@example.com.