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Intra- and interseasonal autoregressive prediction of dengue outbreaks using local weather and regional climate for a tropical environment in Colombia.

Eastin MD, Delmelle E, Casas I, Wexler J, Self C - Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. (2014)

Bottom Line: Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors-all of which are influenced by environmental factors.Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011.Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C--the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina; Department of Social Sciences, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, Louisiana mdeastin@uncc.edu.

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Monthly time series of non-optimal days, ENSO, and dengue incidence rate from 2000 to 2011. The number of days each month with a maximum temperature (TMAX) greater than 32°C is shown by vertical light grey lines, whereas the number of days with a minimum temperature (TMIN) less than 18°C is depicted by vertical bark grey lines for Cali from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Note that a simple 1–2–1 filter was applied to the non-optimal daily counts for greater clarity. Also shown is population-adjusted dengue fever incidence rate (DPOP; solid black) and normalized N4 index (dashed black), where vertical dotted grey lines denote significant El Niño (EL) and La Niña (LA) events.47
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Figure 6: Monthly time series of non-optimal days, ENSO, and dengue incidence rate from 2000 to 2011. The number of days each month with a maximum temperature (TMAX) greater than 32°C is shown by vertical light grey lines, whereas the number of days with a minimum temperature (TMIN) less than 18°C is depicted by vertical bark grey lines for Cali from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Note that a simple 1–2–1 filter was applied to the non-optimal daily counts for greater clarity. Also shown is population-adjusted dengue fever incidence rate (DPOP; solid black) and normalized N4 index (dashed black), where vertical dotted grey lines denote significant El Niño (EL) and La Niña (LA) events.47

Mentions: Analysis of climatic relationships with Cali's dengue incidence rates was restricted to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) because of its close proximity. The state of ENSO during our study period was determined from the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as well as the monthly Niño-1.2 (N12), Niño-3 (N3), Niño-4 (N4), and Niño-3.4 (N34) indices (Table 1) readily available from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). Using a standard definition, significant El Niño (La Niña) events occur when the 5-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (relative to the 1971–2000 base period) for a given index exceeds +0.4°C (−0.4°C) for at least 6 consecutive months.47 Based on the N4 index (Figure 6), a total of four El Niño events and two La Niña events occurred during our study period.


Intra- and interseasonal autoregressive prediction of dengue outbreaks using local weather and regional climate for a tropical environment in Colombia.

Eastin MD, Delmelle E, Casas I, Wexler J, Self C - Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. (2014)

Monthly time series of non-optimal days, ENSO, and dengue incidence rate from 2000 to 2011. The number of days each month with a maximum temperature (TMAX) greater than 32°C is shown by vertical light grey lines, whereas the number of days with a minimum temperature (TMIN) less than 18°C is depicted by vertical bark grey lines for Cali from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Note that a simple 1–2–1 filter was applied to the non-optimal daily counts for greater clarity. Also shown is population-adjusted dengue fever incidence rate (DPOP; solid black) and normalized N4 index (dashed black), where vertical dotted grey lines denote significant El Niño (EL) and La Niña (LA) events.47
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4155567&req=5

Figure 6: Monthly time series of non-optimal days, ENSO, and dengue incidence rate from 2000 to 2011. The number of days each month with a maximum temperature (TMAX) greater than 32°C is shown by vertical light grey lines, whereas the number of days with a minimum temperature (TMIN) less than 18°C is depicted by vertical bark grey lines for Cali from January of 2000 to December of 2011. Note that a simple 1–2–1 filter was applied to the non-optimal daily counts for greater clarity. Also shown is population-adjusted dengue fever incidence rate (DPOP; solid black) and normalized N4 index (dashed black), where vertical dotted grey lines denote significant El Niño (EL) and La Niña (LA) events.47
Mentions: Analysis of climatic relationships with Cali's dengue incidence rates was restricted to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) because of its close proximity. The state of ENSO during our study period was determined from the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as well as the monthly Niño-1.2 (N12), Niño-3 (N3), Niño-4 (N4), and Niño-3.4 (N34) indices (Table 1) readily available from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). Using a standard definition, significant El Niño (La Niña) events occur when the 5-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (relative to the 1971–2000 base period) for a given index exceeds +0.4°C (−0.4°C) for at least 6 consecutive months.47 Based on the N4 index (Figure 6), a total of four El Niño events and two La Niña events occurred during our study period.

Bottom Line: Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors-all of which are influenced by environmental factors.Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011.Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C--the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina; Department of Social Sciences, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, Louisiana mdeastin@uncc.edu.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus