Intra- and interseasonal autoregressive prediction of dengue outbreaks using local weather and regional climate for a tropical environment in Colombia.
Bottom Line: Dengue fever transmission results from complex interactions between the virus, human hosts, and mosquito vectors-all of which are influenced by environmental factors.Time series of epidemiological and meteorological data for the urban environment of Cali, Colombia are analyzed from January of 2000 to December of 2011.Significant dengue outbreaks generally occur during warm-dry periods with extreme daily temperatures confined between 18°C and 32°C--the optimal range for mosquito survival and viral transmission.
Affiliation: Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina; Department of Social Sciences, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, Louisiana email@example.com.Show MeSH
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Mentions: Analysis of climatic relationships with Cali's dengue incidence rates was restricted to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) because of its close proximity. The state of ENSO during our study period was determined from the monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as well as the monthly Niño-1.2 (N12), Niño-3 (N3), Niño-4 (N4), and Niño-3.4 (N34) indices (Table 1) readily available from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC; http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). Using a standard definition, significant El Niño (La Niña) events occur when the 5-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (relative to the 1971–2000 base period) for a given index exceeds +0.4°C (−0.4°C) for at least 6 consecutive months.47 Based on the N4 index (Figure 6), a total of four El Niño events and two La Niña events occurred during our study period.
Affiliation: Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, North Carolina; Department of Social Sciences, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, Louisiana firstname.lastname@example.org.