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Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.

Giang PQ, Toshiki K, Sakata M, Kunikane S, Vinh TQ - ScientificWorldJournal (2014)

Bottom Line: The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years.The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s.As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan ; Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT
The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Change in seasonal and annual river discharge at Yen Thuong Station.
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Related In: Results  -  Collection


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fig10: Change in seasonal and annual river discharge at Yen Thuong Station.

Mentions: Figure 10 represents projected future seasonal and annual changes in river discharge, computed from monthly changes. Overall, it can be seen that dry season discharge is projected to decrease, while wet season discharge and annual discharge are likely to increase. This trend is obvious for all three scenarios. There is a similarity among the three scenarios until the period of the 2030s, with a prediction for dry season discharge to decrease by around 2.2% and wet season discharge to increase by approximately 3.0%. From the 2030s on, the magnitude of change between the three scenarios increases. Discharge is likely to change the most quickly under scenario A2, faster than under scenario B2 and faster still than under scenario B1. This pattern is consistent with the patterns of changes in temperature (Figure 5), PET (Figure 6), and precipitation (Figure 8).


Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.

Giang PQ, Toshiki K, Sakata M, Kunikane S, Vinh TQ - ScientificWorldJournal (2014)

Change in seasonal and annual river discharge at Yen Thuong Station.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4150503&req=5

fig10: Change in seasonal and annual river discharge at Yen Thuong Station.
Mentions: Figure 10 represents projected future seasonal and annual changes in river discharge, computed from monthly changes. Overall, it can be seen that dry season discharge is projected to decrease, while wet season discharge and annual discharge are likely to increase. This trend is obvious for all three scenarios. There is a similarity among the three scenarios until the period of the 2030s, with a prediction for dry season discharge to decrease by around 2.2% and wet season discharge to increase by approximately 3.0%. From the 2030s on, the magnitude of change between the three scenarios increases. Discharge is likely to change the most quickly under scenario A2, faster than under scenario B2 and faster still than under scenario B1. This pattern is consistent with the patterns of changes in temperature (Figure 5), PET (Figure 6), and precipitation (Figure 8).

Bottom Line: The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years.The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s.As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan ; Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT
The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus