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Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.

Giang PQ, Toshiki K, Sakata M, Kunikane S, Vinh TQ - ScientificWorldJournal (2014)

Bottom Line: The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years.The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s.As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan ; Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT
The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Change in monthly mean precipitation (line chart) relative to average data of the baseline period (column chart).
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Related In: Results  -  Collection


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fig7: Change in monthly mean precipitation (line chart) relative to average data of the baseline period (column chart).

Mentions: Figure 7 shows the relative change in monthly mean precipitation of the UCRW, computed as the average of the five investigated meteorological stations. It can be seen that there will likely be significant decreases in precipitation in January and April, with rates of up to 20% for January and 30% for April in the 2090s according to the high emission scenario A2. On the opposite side of the graph, the largest increase in precipitation is likely to occur in December, with the highest rate up almost 29% in the 2090s in scenario A2, followed by July and then October. Precipitation change in March and May is expected to be at a very small rate. Note that the months around October are in the flooding season, with a monthly precipitation of about 300 mm. A great increase in precipitation around this month is likely to cause a high risk of flooding to the UCRW.


Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.

Giang PQ, Toshiki K, Sakata M, Kunikane S, Vinh TQ - ScientificWorldJournal (2014)

Change in monthly mean precipitation (line chart) relative to average data of the baseline period (column chart).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4150503&req=5

fig7: Change in monthly mean precipitation (line chart) relative to average data of the baseline period (column chart).
Mentions: Figure 7 shows the relative change in monthly mean precipitation of the UCRW, computed as the average of the five investigated meteorological stations. It can be seen that there will likely be significant decreases in precipitation in January and April, with rates of up to 20% for January and 30% for April in the 2090s according to the high emission scenario A2. On the opposite side of the graph, the largest increase in precipitation is likely to occur in December, with the highest rate up almost 29% in the 2090s in scenario A2, followed by July and then October. Precipitation change in March and May is expected to be at a very small rate. Note that the months around October are in the flooding season, with a monthly precipitation of about 300 mm. A great increase in precipitation around this month is likely to cause a high risk of flooding to the UCRW.

Bottom Line: The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years.The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s.As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan ; Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT
The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus