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Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.

Giang PQ, Toshiki K, Sakata M, Kunikane S, Vinh TQ - ScientificWorldJournal (2014)

Bottom Line: The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years.The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s.As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan ; Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT
The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Relative change in mean annual temperature under 3 scenarios at 5 stations of the UCRW.
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Related In: Results  -  Collection


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fig5: Relative change in mean annual temperature under 3 scenarios at 5 stations of the UCRW.

Mentions: In all 3 scenarios for the 5 stations investigated, temperature increases gradually throughout the 21st century, although the degree of increment is rather different among stations. At Con Cuong station, the temperature rises at the highest rate (up to 3.4°C in the 2090s under scenario A2), followed by Do Luong and then Quy Hop stations. Temperature increases least at Quy Chau station (Figure 5). On average, according to the high emission scenario (A2), in the UCRW, increases of 1.0°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C are expected for the periods of the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, respectively. It should be noted that the behavior of scenarios B1, B2, and A2 is fairly similar for the mean annual temperature until the near future period (2030s), with an increase of approximately 1°C compared to the baseline period. The difference in behavior increases slightly in the middle future period (2060s). From then on, the A2 scenario simulation predicts the largest changes, followed by the B2 and then the B1 scenario. In the 2090s, the differences between scenario A2 and scenarios B2 and B1 are approximately 0.5°C and 1.2°C, respectively. This is consistent with the characteristics of the emission scenarios, which evolve similarly until the middle of the 21st century, when A2 becomes more negative due to the continuous increase of population growth and, therefore, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, B1 becomes less negative due to the slowing of population growth, with a corresponding reduction in greenhouse gas emissions [8, 51]. The same behavior has also been reported in several very recent studies using IPCC AR3 or IPCC AR4 models on a regional scale [52–54].


Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.

Giang PQ, Toshiki K, Sakata M, Kunikane S, Vinh TQ - ScientificWorldJournal (2014)

Relative change in mean annual temperature under 3 scenarios at 5 stations of the UCRW.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4150503&req=5

fig5: Relative change in mean annual temperature under 3 scenarios at 5 stations of the UCRW.
Mentions: In all 3 scenarios for the 5 stations investigated, temperature increases gradually throughout the 21st century, although the degree of increment is rather different among stations. At Con Cuong station, the temperature rises at the highest rate (up to 3.4°C in the 2090s under scenario A2), followed by Do Luong and then Quy Hop stations. Temperature increases least at Quy Chau station (Figure 5). On average, according to the high emission scenario (A2), in the UCRW, increases of 1.0°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C are expected for the periods of the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, respectively. It should be noted that the behavior of scenarios B1, B2, and A2 is fairly similar for the mean annual temperature until the near future period (2030s), with an increase of approximately 1°C compared to the baseline period. The difference in behavior increases slightly in the middle future period (2060s). From then on, the A2 scenario simulation predicts the largest changes, followed by the B2 and then the B1 scenario. In the 2090s, the differences between scenario A2 and scenarios B2 and B1 are approximately 0.5°C and 1.2°C, respectively. This is consistent with the characteristics of the emission scenarios, which evolve similarly until the middle of the 21st century, when A2 becomes more negative due to the continuous increase of population growth and, therefore, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, B1 becomes less negative due to the slowing of population growth, with a corresponding reduction in greenhouse gas emissions [8, 51]. The same behavior has also been reported in several very recent studies using IPCC AR3 or IPCC AR4 models on a regional scale [52–54].

Bottom Line: The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years.The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s.As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan ; Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.

ABSTRACT
The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus