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A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures.

Newbold T, Hudson LN, Phillips HR, Hill SL, Contu S, Lysenko I, Blandon A, Butchart SH, Booth HL, Day J, De Palma A, Harrison ML, Kirkpatrick L, Pynegar E, Robinson A, Simpson J, Mace GM, Scharlemann JP, Purvis A - Proc. Biol. Sci. (2014)

Bottom Line: Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity.Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups--invertebrates, 'herptiles' (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds--respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests.Responses differ among the four groups considered, and--within birds and mammals--between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research Cambridge, 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK tim.newbold@unep-wcmc.org.

ABSTRACT
Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity. Tropical forests harbour among the highest levels of terrestrial species diversity and are likely to experience rapid land-use change in the coming decades. Synthetic analyses of observed responses of species are useful for quantifying how land use affects biodiversity and for predicting outcomes under land-use scenarios. Previous applications of this approach have typically focused on individual taxonomic groups, analysing the average response of the whole community to changes in land use. Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups--invertebrates, 'herptiles' (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds--respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests. We show significant independent impacts of land use, human vegetation offtake, forest cover and human population density on both occurrence and abundance of species, highlighting the value of analysing multiple explanatory variables simultaneously. Responses differ among the four groups considered, and--within birds and mammals--between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Response of the probability of occurrence of 3708 taxa in tropical forests to land use (a), forest cover (b,c) and the interaction between vegetation removal (iNDVI) and human population density (d–i). Panel (a) shows the relative (logit-transformed) probability of occurrence, relative to the probability of occurrence in primary forest; land-use categories considered were: primary forest (PF), secondary forest (SF), plantation forest (WP), cropland (CR), pasture (PA) and urban (UR); only significant terms are shown. Panels (b–i) show the absolute (untransformed) probabilities of occurrence, with separate panels for forest/habitat specialists (spec.) and habitat generalists (gen.). Probability of occurrence was estimated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a binomial error distribution, fitting site nested within study and taxon as random effects. For the response to forest cover, the average response across all species is shown (b), as well as the separate responses for habitat specialists and generalists and for narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species (c). Error bars (a) and dashed lines (b) show ±1 s.e. Dashed vertical lines in (a) divide the taxonomic groups; grey vertical lines separate the land-use types when taxonomic groups were also divided by habitat specialization and range size.
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RSPB20141371F2: Response of the probability of occurrence of 3708 taxa in tropical forests to land use (a), forest cover (b,c) and the interaction between vegetation removal (iNDVI) and human population density (d–i). Panel (a) shows the relative (logit-transformed) probability of occurrence, relative to the probability of occurrence in primary forest; land-use categories considered were: primary forest (PF), secondary forest (SF), plantation forest (WP), cropland (CR), pasture (PA) and urban (UR); only significant terms are shown. Panels (b–i) show the absolute (untransformed) probabilities of occurrence, with separate panels for forest/habitat specialists (spec.) and habitat generalists (gen.). Probability of occurrence was estimated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a binomial error distribution, fitting site nested within study and taxon as random effects. For the response to forest cover, the average response across all species is shown (b), as well as the separate responses for habitat specialists and generalists and for narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species (c). Error bars (a) and dashed lines (b) show ±1 s.e. Dashed vertical lines in (a) divide the taxonomic groups; grey vertical lines separate the land-use types when taxonomic groups were also divided by habitat specialization and range size.

Mentions: The probability that species occurred at a site was strongly related to the major land-use type, and this response differed markedly among taxonomic groups (table 1 and figure 2a). With the exception of birds in primary forest, narrow-ranged species were less likely than widespread species to occur in all land uses, with the largest differences between narrow- and wide-ranged species seen in urban environments, croplands and plantation forests (ΔAIC = −178; best-fitting model, AIC = 43705; figure 2a). Among bird and mammal species, forest specialists were less likely than non-specialists to occur in secondary forest, wood plantation, cropland and urban habitats, but more likely to occur in primary forest (ΔAIC = −262; figure 2a).Table 1.


A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures.

Newbold T, Hudson LN, Phillips HR, Hill SL, Contu S, Lysenko I, Blandon A, Butchart SH, Booth HL, Day J, De Palma A, Harrison ML, Kirkpatrick L, Pynegar E, Robinson A, Simpson J, Mace GM, Scharlemann JP, Purvis A - Proc. Biol. Sci. (2014)

Response of the probability of occurrence of 3708 taxa in tropical forests to land use (a), forest cover (b,c) and the interaction between vegetation removal (iNDVI) and human population density (d–i). Panel (a) shows the relative (logit-transformed) probability of occurrence, relative to the probability of occurrence in primary forest; land-use categories considered were: primary forest (PF), secondary forest (SF), plantation forest (WP), cropland (CR), pasture (PA) and urban (UR); only significant terms are shown. Panels (b–i) show the absolute (untransformed) probabilities of occurrence, with separate panels for forest/habitat specialists (spec.) and habitat generalists (gen.). Probability of occurrence was estimated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a binomial error distribution, fitting site nested within study and taxon as random effects. For the response to forest cover, the average response across all species is shown (b), as well as the separate responses for habitat specialists and generalists and for narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species (c). Error bars (a) and dashed lines (b) show ±1 s.e. Dashed vertical lines in (a) divide the taxonomic groups; grey vertical lines separate the land-use types when taxonomic groups were also divided by habitat specialization and range size.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4150326&req=5

RSPB20141371F2: Response of the probability of occurrence of 3708 taxa in tropical forests to land use (a), forest cover (b,c) and the interaction between vegetation removal (iNDVI) and human population density (d–i). Panel (a) shows the relative (logit-transformed) probability of occurrence, relative to the probability of occurrence in primary forest; land-use categories considered were: primary forest (PF), secondary forest (SF), plantation forest (WP), cropland (CR), pasture (PA) and urban (UR); only significant terms are shown. Panels (b–i) show the absolute (untransformed) probabilities of occurrence, with separate panels for forest/habitat specialists (spec.) and habitat generalists (gen.). Probability of occurrence was estimated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a binomial error distribution, fitting site nested within study and taxon as random effects. For the response to forest cover, the average response across all species is shown (b), as well as the separate responses for habitat specialists and generalists and for narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species (c). Error bars (a) and dashed lines (b) show ±1 s.e. Dashed vertical lines in (a) divide the taxonomic groups; grey vertical lines separate the land-use types when taxonomic groups were also divided by habitat specialization and range size.
Mentions: The probability that species occurred at a site was strongly related to the major land-use type, and this response differed markedly among taxonomic groups (table 1 and figure 2a). With the exception of birds in primary forest, narrow-ranged species were less likely than widespread species to occur in all land uses, with the largest differences between narrow- and wide-ranged species seen in urban environments, croplands and plantation forests (ΔAIC = −178; best-fitting model, AIC = 43705; figure 2a). Among bird and mammal species, forest specialists were less likely than non-specialists to occur in secondary forest, wood plantation, cropland and urban habitats, but more likely to occur in primary forest (ΔAIC = −262; figure 2a).Table 1.

Bottom Line: Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity.Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups--invertebrates, 'herptiles' (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds--respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests.Responses differ among the four groups considered, and--within birds and mammals--between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research Cambridge, 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK tim.newbold@unep-wcmc.org.

ABSTRACT
Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity. Tropical forests harbour among the highest levels of terrestrial species diversity and are likely to experience rapid land-use change in the coming decades. Synthetic analyses of observed responses of species are useful for quantifying how land use affects biodiversity and for predicting outcomes under land-use scenarios. Previous applications of this approach have typically focused on individual taxonomic groups, analysing the average response of the whole community to changes in land use. Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups--invertebrates, 'herptiles' (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds--respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests. We show significant independent impacts of land use, human vegetation offtake, forest cover and human population density on both occurrence and abundance of species, highlighting the value of analysing multiple explanatory variables simultaneously. Responses differ among the four groups considered, and--within birds and mammals--between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus