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Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease.

Morris A, Gozlan RE, Hassani H, Andreou D, Couppié P, Guégan JF - Emerg Microbes Infect (2014)

Bottom Line: Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin.While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche.From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR MIVEGEC, IRD-CNRS-Universités de Montpellier 1 et 2, Centre IRD de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5 , France.

ABSTRACT
Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Monthly time series and EMD of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people. (A) Monthly time series of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people from 1969 to 2012. (B) First IMF. (C) Second IMF. (D) Third IMF. (E) Fourth IMF. (F) Fifth IMF. (G) Sixth IMF. (H) Seventh IMF. Periodograms for (I) first IMF showing a high level of variation across the spectra and therefore, should be considered white noise; (J) second IMF which has its highest power at two cycles per year; (K) third IMF with its highest power at one cycle per year; (L) fourth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 2 years; (M) fifth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 4 years; (N) sixth IMF with a low level of cycles representing very long-term trends; (O) seventh IMF also representing long-term trends.
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fig5: Monthly time series and EMD of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people. (A) Monthly time series of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people from 1969 to 2012. (B) First IMF. (C) Second IMF. (D) Third IMF. (E) Fourth IMF. (F) Fifth IMF. (G) Sixth IMF. (H) Seventh IMF. Periodograms for (I) first IMF showing a high level of variation across the spectra and therefore, should be considered white noise; (J) second IMF which has its highest power at two cycles per year; (K) third IMF with its highest power at one cycle per year; (L) fourth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 2 years; (M) fifth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 4 years; (N) sixth IMF with a low level of cycles representing very long-term trends; (O) seventh IMF also representing long-term trends.

Mentions: Seven IMF series were produced by EMD of repeating patterns from the BU case data (Figures 5A–5H); periodograms of these show that the first IMF has high levels of variation across the spectrum and therefore, is likely noise, the second is a bi-yearly repeating pattern and the third is a measure of cases per year, the fourth over 2 years and the fifth over 4 years. Subsequent IMF series are long-term trends (Figures 5I–5O).


Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease.

Morris A, Gozlan RE, Hassani H, Andreou D, Couppié P, Guégan JF - Emerg Microbes Infect (2014)

Monthly time series and EMD of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people. (A) Monthly time series of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people from 1969 to 2012. (B) First IMF. (C) Second IMF. (D) Third IMF. (E) Fourth IMF. (F) Fifth IMF. (G) Sixth IMF. (H) Seventh IMF. Periodograms for (I) first IMF showing a high level of variation across the spectra and therefore, should be considered white noise; (J) second IMF which has its highest power at two cycles per year; (K) third IMF with its highest power at one cycle per year; (L) fourth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 2 years; (M) fifth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 4 years; (N) sixth IMF with a low level of cycles representing very long-term trends; (O) seventh IMF also representing long-term trends.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4150285&req=5

fig5: Monthly time series and EMD of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people. (A) Monthly time series of Buruli ulcer cases per 100 000 people from 1969 to 2012. (B) First IMF. (C) Second IMF. (D) Third IMF. (E) Fourth IMF. (F) Fifth IMF. (G) Sixth IMF. (H) Seventh IMF. Periodograms for (I) first IMF showing a high level of variation across the spectra and therefore, should be considered white noise; (J) second IMF which has its highest power at two cycles per year; (K) third IMF with its highest power at one cycle per year; (L) fourth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 2 years; (M) fifth IMF with the highest power approximately at one cycle every 4 years; (N) sixth IMF with a low level of cycles representing very long-term trends; (O) seventh IMF also representing long-term trends.
Mentions: Seven IMF series were produced by EMD of repeating patterns from the BU case data (Figures 5A–5H); periodograms of these show that the first IMF has high levels of variation across the spectrum and therefore, is likely noise, the second is a bi-yearly repeating pattern and the third is a measure of cases per year, the fourth over 2 years and the fifth over 4 years. Subsequent IMF series are long-term trends (Figures 5I–5O).

Bottom Line: Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin.While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche.From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR MIVEGEC, IRD-CNRS-Universités de Montpellier 1 et 2, Centre IRD de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5 , France.

ABSTRACT
Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus