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Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease.

Morris A, Gozlan RE, Hassani H, Andreou D, Couppié P, Guégan JF - Emerg Microbes Infect (2014)

Bottom Line: Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin.While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche.From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR MIVEGEC, IRD-CNRS-Universités de Montpellier 1 et 2, Centre IRD de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5 , France.

ABSTRACT
Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Map of French Guiana showing the location of 17 weather stations along the coast of French Guiana and the position of French Guiana within South America.
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fig1: Map of French Guiana showing the location of 17 weather stations along the coast of French Guiana and the position of French Guiana within South America.

Mentions: The only accurate long-term (decadal) dataset for cases of BU is from French Guiana in South America, with records going back to 1969. French Guiana also has a well-recorded history of rainfall during this period making it highly suitable for this study. French Guiana is a French ultraperipheral territory bordering the countries of Brazil to the east and south and Suriname to the west. Although large at 83 534 km2, the population density is very low with almost all inhabitants located in a thin strip along the coastline. The rest of the country is predominantly pristine primary tropical rain forest and contains the 33 900 km2 Guiana Amazonian national park, as well as a wealth of important ecosystems ranging from marshland to coastal mangroves. The numbers of BU cases were obtained from Cayenne Central hospital records dating back to 1969 till 2012, with identification based on a combination of histopathological, microbiological, clinical and genetic analysis. This dataset is the most accurate long-term data on BU to our knowledge, which can be used for coherence with climatic factors. A potential issue with lesion causing diseases is the variation in time between appearance of symptoms and seeking of medical attention, reflected in lesion size. As French Guiana is part of the European Union and is a low-population French territory, case reporting and assessment of lesions incurred a minimal delay; active surveillance of the disease was being undertaken with health-care professionals who are trained to recognize BU being present in all towns and villages. Disease cases are distributed across the territory in line with the distribution of the population and are present almost ubiquitously where there are people. Rainfall data were obtained from Météo-France and were recorded as the average rainfall in millimeters per month from 17 weather stations (Figure 1) across the populated coastal area of the territory from 1969 to 2012. Due to the restricted range of inhabited areas, a small human population and therefore, a relatively low number of cases in each locality, an average rainfall reading from the stations along the coastal area was taken and compared to data on all BU cases across French Guiana. ENSO data for the period were taken from the American National Climatic Data Center and measured as the sea surface temperature (SST) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease.

Morris A, Gozlan RE, Hassani H, Andreou D, Couppié P, Guégan JF - Emerg Microbes Infect (2014)

Map of French Guiana showing the location of 17 weather stations along the coast of French Guiana and the position of French Guiana within South America.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4150285&req=5

fig1: Map of French Guiana showing the location of 17 weather stations along the coast of French Guiana and the position of French Guiana within South America.
Mentions: The only accurate long-term (decadal) dataset for cases of BU is from French Guiana in South America, with records going back to 1969. French Guiana also has a well-recorded history of rainfall during this period making it highly suitable for this study. French Guiana is a French ultraperipheral territory bordering the countries of Brazil to the east and south and Suriname to the west. Although large at 83 534 km2, the population density is very low with almost all inhabitants located in a thin strip along the coastline. The rest of the country is predominantly pristine primary tropical rain forest and contains the 33 900 km2 Guiana Amazonian national park, as well as a wealth of important ecosystems ranging from marshland to coastal mangroves. The numbers of BU cases were obtained from Cayenne Central hospital records dating back to 1969 till 2012, with identification based on a combination of histopathological, microbiological, clinical and genetic analysis. This dataset is the most accurate long-term data on BU to our knowledge, which can be used for coherence with climatic factors. A potential issue with lesion causing diseases is the variation in time between appearance of symptoms and seeking of medical attention, reflected in lesion size. As French Guiana is part of the European Union and is a low-population French territory, case reporting and assessment of lesions incurred a minimal delay; active surveillance of the disease was being undertaken with health-care professionals who are trained to recognize BU being present in all towns and villages. Disease cases are distributed across the territory in line with the distribution of the population and are present almost ubiquitously where there are people. Rainfall data were obtained from Météo-France and were recorded as the average rainfall in millimeters per month from 17 weather stations (Figure 1) across the populated coastal area of the territory from 1969 to 2012. Due to the restricted range of inhabited areas, a small human population and therefore, a relatively low number of cases in each locality, an average rainfall reading from the stations along the coastal area was taken and compared to data on all BU cases across French Guiana. ENSO data for the period were taken from the American National Climatic Data Center and measured as the sea surface temperature (SST) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Bottom Line: Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin.While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche.From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR MIVEGEC, IRD-CNRS-Universités de Montpellier 1 et 2, Centre IRD de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5 , France.

ABSTRACT
Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus