Contraceptive confidence and timing of first birth in Moldova: an event history analysis of retrospective data.
Bottom Line: The outcome measure was the interval between marriage and first birth.There is a higher cumulative hazard of first birth among women with low (0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)) and moderate abortion propensities (0.76 (0.75 to 0.77)) than women with no abortion propensity (0.73 (0.72 to 0.74)) 24 months after marriage.Increased use of abortion also tends to increase contraceptive confidence and shorten birth duration, although this effect is non-linear-women with a very high use of abortion tend to have lengthy intervals between marriage and first birth.
Affiliation: Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education, London, UK.Show MeSH
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Mentions: The estimated survival curve of first birth for women with low contraceptive confidence is presented in figure 3, which examines the association between low contraceptive confidence and abortion propensity. In general, the proportion of women yet to have first birth is high for women with no abortion propensity, and the survival curves are lower for women with low and moderate abortion propensity. Table 1B presents the estimated cumulative hazard of first birth. Broadly, we see that the probability of having first birth is low for women with no abortion propensity. However, the cumulative hazard of first birth is significantly higher at 12, 24 and 36 months among low abortion users and 12 and 24 months among moderate abortion users following marriage. This suggests that overall women who were prepared to use abortion at least partially have a shorter interval between marriage and first birth. The survival curve for women with high abortion propensity is roughly comparable or slightly lower than women with no abortion propensity. We cannot detect an effect for high abortion prevalence. Indeed, there is some evidence of attenuation in the higher cumulative hazard of first birth at higher abortion levels: at 12, 24 and 36 months, the cumulative hazard is lower for moderate and high abortion users than for women with low abortion propensity.
Affiliation: Department of Quantitative Social Science, Institute of Education, London, UK.