Limits...
Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

He Q, Bertness MD, Bruno JF, Li B, Chen G, Coverdale TC, Altieri AH, Bai J, Sun T, Pennings SC, Liu J, Ehrlich PR, Cui B - Sci Rep (2014)

Bottom Line: Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude.Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978.Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

ABSTRACT
Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

Show MeSH

Related in: MedlinePlus

Trends in economy, population in coastal China.(a) China's coastal provinces examined in this study and their GDP per capita in 2010 (constant 2000 USD). (b) Relative increase over the last six decades. (c) Trends in coastal GDP and population as percentage of China's total (also shown relative to inland). (d) Yearly average increases (±95% CIs) in pre- and post- reform periods. Dashed vertical and horizontal lines indicate the start of economic reform and the relative impact ( = 1) in 1978, respectively. Differences between pre- and post-reform periods are considered significant if there is no overlap in their 95% CIs (shown with a *). The background map in (a) was created using the maps/mapproj packages of R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and Adobe Illustrator (Adobe Systems Inc., CA, USA).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4125988&req=5

f1: Trends in economy, population in coastal China.(a) China's coastal provinces examined in this study and their GDP per capita in 2010 (constant 2000 USD). (b) Relative increase over the last six decades. (c) Trends in coastal GDP and population as percentage of China's total (also shown relative to inland). (d) Yearly average increases (±95% CIs) in pre- and post- reform periods. Dashed vertical and horizontal lines indicate the start of economic reform and the relative impact ( = 1) in 1978, respectively. Differences between pre- and post-reform periods are considered significant if there is no overlap in their 95% CIs (shown with a *). The background map in (a) was created using the maps/mapproj packages of R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and Adobe Illustrator (Adobe Systems Inc., CA, USA).

Mentions: China's coastal GDP remained low and grew annually by ~2.2 billion USD (constant 2000 prices) between the 1950s and 1978 (Fig. 1). National economic reforms then triggered coastal GDP growth between 1978 and 2010 greater than two orders of magnitude. The coastal GDP accounted for ~50% of China's total before 1978, but grew to ~60% between 1978 and 2010 (Fig. 1c). China's coastal population increased from 260 million in 1954 to 400 million in 1978, and to 590 million in 2010. But in contrast to coastal GDP, the rate of population growth did not increase with economic reform (~6 million per year; Fig. 1d) due to population control policies. The coastal population accounted for 40–43% of China' total population in all years (Fig. 1c). Thus in contrast to GDP, China's population did not concentrate on the coast over the last six decades. Coastal GDP per capita (GDPpc) increased less than three-fold between the 1950s and 1978, but over 18-fold between 1978 and 2010 (Fig. 1b). Approximately 15% of the coastal GDP in 2010 was from marine and marine-related industries, and 6% from industries directly consuming marine species and ecosystem services, e.g., fisheries, transportation, tourism, and oil/gas production34.


Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

He Q, Bertness MD, Bruno JF, Li B, Chen G, Coverdale TC, Altieri AH, Bai J, Sun T, Pennings SC, Liu J, Ehrlich PR, Cui B - Sci Rep (2014)

Trends in economy, population in coastal China.(a) China's coastal provinces examined in this study and their GDP per capita in 2010 (constant 2000 USD). (b) Relative increase over the last six decades. (c) Trends in coastal GDP and population as percentage of China's total (also shown relative to inland). (d) Yearly average increases (±95% CIs) in pre- and post- reform periods. Dashed vertical and horizontal lines indicate the start of economic reform and the relative impact ( = 1) in 1978, respectively. Differences between pre- and post-reform periods are considered significant if there is no overlap in their 95% CIs (shown with a *). The background map in (a) was created using the maps/mapproj packages of R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and Adobe Illustrator (Adobe Systems Inc., CA, USA).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4125988&req=5

f1: Trends in economy, population in coastal China.(a) China's coastal provinces examined in this study and their GDP per capita in 2010 (constant 2000 USD). (b) Relative increase over the last six decades. (c) Trends in coastal GDP and population as percentage of China's total (also shown relative to inland). (d) Yearly average increases (±95% CIs) in pre- and post- reform periods. Dashed vertical and horizontal lines indicate the start of economic reform and the relative impact ( = 1) in 1978, respectively. Differences between pre- and post-reform periods are considered significant if there is no overlap in their 95% CIs (shown with a *). The background map in (a) was created using the maps/mapproj packages of R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and Adobe Illustrator (Adobe Systems Inc., CA, USA).
Mentions: China's coastal GDP remained low and grew annually by ~2.2 billion USD (constant 2000 prices) between the 1950s and 1978 (Fig. 1). National economic reforms then triggered coastal GDP growth between 1978 and 2010 greater than two orders of magnitude. The coastal GDP accounted for ~50% of China's total before 1978, but grew to ~60% between 1978 and 2010 (Fig. 1c). China's coastal population increased from 260 million in 1954 to 400 million in 1978, and to 590 million in 2010. But in contrast to coastal GDP, the rate of population growth did not increase with economic reform (~6 million per year; Fig. 1d) due to population control policies. The coastal population accounted for 40–43% of China' total population in all years (Fig. 1c). Thus in contrast to GDP, China's population did not concentrate on the coast over the last six decades. Coastal GDP per capita (GDPpc) increased less than three-fold between the 1950s and 1978, but over 18-fold between 1978 and 2010 (Fig. 1b). Approximately 15% of the coastal GDP in 2010 was from marine and marine-related industries, and 6% from industries directly consuming marine species and ecosystem services, e.g., fisheries, transportation, tourism, and oil/gas production34.

Bottom Line: Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude.Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978.Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Environment, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

ABSTRACT
Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus