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Risk of dengue for tourists and teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil.

van Panhuis WG, Hyun S, Blaney K, Marques ET, Coelho GE, Siqueira JB, Tibshirani R, da Silva JB, Rosenfeld R - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2014)

Bottom Line: Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models.Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively).Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Background: This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country.

Methodology/principal findings: We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001-2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th-100th percentile: 5-334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30-77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively).

Conclusion/significance: The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Weekly log 10 incidence rates from 2001 to 2013 for cities that hostgames, teams (basecamps), or both.(A) Locations of World Cup cities, (B) Log 10incidence rates per week by city with the distribution of all weeklyincidence rates across cities in the top panel.
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pntd-0003063-g001: Weekly log 10 incidence rates from 2001 to 2013 for cities that hostgames, teams (basecamps), or both.(A) Locations of World Cup cities, (B) Log 10incidence rates per week by city with the distribution of all weeklyincidence rates across cities in the top panel.

Mentions: Dengue IR's varied substantially across game and basecamp cities during2001–2013 (Figure1). From 2001–2007, transmission was highest innorthern cities on the East Coast and virtually absent in southern cities exceptduring the 2002 epidemic. After 2007, DENV transmission increased across allcities with one of the largest epidemics occurring last year (2013) with IR'sexceeding 1500 cases/100,000 in some cities.


Risk of dengue for tourists and teams during the World Cup 2014 in Brazil.

van Panhuis WG, Hyun S, Blaney K, Marques ET, Coelho GE, Siqueira JB, Tibshirani R, da Silva JB, Rosenfeld R - PLoS Negl Trop Dis (2014)

Weekly log 10 incidence rates from 2001 to 2013 for cities that hostgames, teams (basecamps), or both.(A) Locations of World Cup cities, (B) Log 10incidence rates per week by city with the distribution of all weeklyincidence rates across cities in the top panel.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4120682&req=5

pntd-0003063-g001: Weekly log 10 incidence rates from 2001 to 2013 for cities that hostgames, teams (basecamps), or both.(A) Locations of World Cup cities, (B) Log 10incidence rates per week by city with the distribution of all weeklyincidence rates across cities in the top panel.
Mentions: Dengue IR's varied substantially across game and basecamp cities during2001–2013 (Figure1). From 2001–2007, transmission was highest innorthern cities on the East Coast and virtually absent in southern cities exceptduring the 2002 epidemic. After 2007, DENV transmission increased across allcities with one of the largest epidemics occurring last year (2013) with IR'sexceeding 1500 cases/100,000 in some cities.

Bottom Line: Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models.Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively).Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.

ABSTRACT

Background: This year, Brazil will host about 600,000 foreign visitors during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The concern of possible dengue transmission during this event has been raised given the high transmission rates reported in the past by this country.

Methodology/principal findings: We used dengue incidence rates reported by each host city during previous years (2001-2013) to estimate the risk of dengue during the World Cup for tourists and teams. Two statistical models were used: a percentile rank (PR) and an Empirical Bayes (EB) model. Expected IR's during the games were generally low (<10/100,000) but predictions varied across locations and between models. Based on current ticket allocations, the mean number of expected symptomatic dengue cases ranged from 26 (PR, 10th-100th percentile: 5-334 cases) to 59 (EB, 95% credible interval: 30-77 cases) among foreign tourists but none are expected among teams. These numbers will highly depend on actual travel schedules and dengue immunity among visitors. Sensitivity analysis for both models indicated that the expected number of cases could be as low as 4 or 5 with 100,000 visitors and as high as 38 or 70 with 800,000 visitors (PR and EB, respectively).

Conclusion/significance: The risk of dengue among tourists during the World Cup is expected to be small due to immunity among the Brazil host population provided by last year's epidemic with the same DENV serotypes. Quantitative risk estimates by different groups and methodologies should be made routinely for mass gathering events.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus