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The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study.

Webber L, Divajeva D, Marsh T, McPherson K, Brown M, Galea G, Breda J - BMJ Open (2014)

Bottom Line: The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%.A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases.Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Projected cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 per 100 000 of the population by country given a 5% reduction in population body mass index (CHD, coronary heart disease).
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BMJOPEN2014004787F4: Projected cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 per 100 000 of the population by country given a 5% reduction in population body mass index (CHD, coronary heart disease).

Mentions: Figure 4 presents cumulative incidence cases avoided in each of the 53 WHO European region countries if population BMI is reduced by 5%. The highest reduction in CHD and stroke and type 2 diabetes was predicted in Slovakia with 3054 and 3369 cumulative incidence cases per 100 000 population avoided by 2030, respectively. The highest reduction in cumulative incidence of obesity-related cancers was projected in Germany with 331 cases/100 000 avoided by 2030.


The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study.

Webber L, Divajeva D, Marsh T, McPherson K, Brown M, Galea G, Breda J - BMJ Open (2014)

Projected cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 per 100 000 of the population by country given a 5% reduction in population body mass index (CHD, coronary heart disease).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4120328&req=5

BMJOPEN2014004787F4: Projected cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 per 100 000 of the population by country given a 5% reduction in population body mass index (CHD, coronary heart disease).
Mentions: Figure 4 presents cumulative incidence cases avoided in each of the 53 WHO European region countries if population BMI is reduced by 5%. The highest reduction in CHD and stroke and type 2 diabetes was predicted in Slovakia with 3054 and 3369 cumulative incidence cases per 100 000 population avoided by 2030, respectively. The highest reduction in cumulative incidence of obesity-related cancers was projected in Germany with 331 cases/100 000 avoided by 2030.

Bottom Line: The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%.A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases.Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus