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The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study.

Webber L, Divajeva D, Marsh T, McPherson K, Brown M, Galea G, Breda J - BMJ Open (2014)

Bottom Line: The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%.A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases.Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 by disease given a 1% or 5% reduction in population body mass index relative to the baseline scenario in 53 WHO European Region Member States. CHD, coronary heart disease.
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BMJOPEN2014004787F3: Cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 by disease given a 1% or 5% reduction in population body mass index relative to the baseline scenario in 53 WHO European Region Member States. CHD, coronary heart disease.

Mentions: Figure 3 presents the European average cumulative incidence gains by 2030 for each disease, given a 1% or 5% reduction in population BMI relative to the baseline scenario. As expected, higher reductions of population BMI would result in a number of obesity-related disease cases being avoided by 2030. A 1% reduction in BMI would result in an average reduction of 365 cases of CHD and stroke per 100 000 of the population by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI would result in the avoidance of 1317 cumulative incidence cases of CHD and stroke per 100 000 of the population.


The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study.

Webber L, Divajeva D, Marsh T, McPherson K, Brown M, Galea G, Breda J - BMJ Open (2014)

Cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 by disease given a 1% or 5% reduction in population body mass index relative to the baseline scenario in 53 WHO European Region Member States. CHD, coronary heart disease.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4120328&req=5

BMJOPEN2014004787F3: Cumulative incidence cases avoided by 2030 by disease given a 1% or 5% reduction in population body mass index relative to the baseline scenario in 53 WHO European Region Member States. CHD, coronary heart disease.
Mentions: Figure 3 presents the European average cumulative incidence gains by 2030 for each disease, given a 1% or 5% reduction in population BMI relative to the baseline scenario. As expected, higher reductions of population BMI would result in a number of obesity-related disease cases being avoided by 2030. A 1% reduction in BMI would result in an average reduction of 365 cases of CHD and stroke per 100 000 of the population by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI would result in the avoidance of 1317 cumulative incidence cases of CHD and stroke per 100 000 of the population.

Bottom Line: The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%.A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases.Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus