Limits...
Future projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan.

Li T, Horton RM, Kinney P - Nat Clim Chang (2013)

Bottom Line: Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain.All 32 projections yielded warm season increases and cold season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases.These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.

ABSTRACT
Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades(1). Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will likely result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location(2-4). Relatively cold temperatures also appear to carry risk(2,4). Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate current and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm season increases and cold season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

No MeSH data available.


Percentage change (average over 16 models) in monthly temperature-related deaths in the 2080s versus the 1980s for the A2 scenario. The largest percent changes are seen for the “shoulder” months of May and September.
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Figure 3: Percentage change (average over 16 models) in monthly temperature-related deaths in the 2080s versus the 1980s for the A2 scenario. The largest percent changes are seen for the “shoulder” months of May and September.

Mentions: Impacts on mortality of future warming varied substantially across months (Figure 3, Supplemental Figure 5–6). Monthly analyses showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter (Supplemental Figure 5). However, percent increases in temperature-related deaths in the 2080s were largest in the months of May and September, with about a 100% increase for the A2 scenario. Similar patterns across months were observed for the other decades and for the B1 scenario (Supplemental Figure 5).


Future projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan.

Li T, Horton RM, Kinney P - Nat Clim Chang (2013)

Percentage change (average over 16 models) in monthly temperature-related deaths in the 2080s versus the 1980s for the A2 scenario. The largest percent changes are seen for the “shoulder” months of May and September.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4045618&req=5

Figure 3: Percentage change (average over 16 models) in monthly temperature-related deaths in the 2080s versus the 1980s for the A2 scenario. The largest percent changes are seen for the “shoulder” months of May and September.
Mentions: Impacts on mortality of future warming varied substantially across months (Figure 3, Supplemental Figure 5–6). Monthly analyses showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter (Supplemental Figure 5). However, percent increases in temperature-related deaths in the 2080s were largest in the months of May and September, with about a 100% increase for the A2 scenario. Similar patterns across months were observed for the other decades and for the B1 scenario (Supplemental Figure 5).

Bottom Line: Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain.All 32 projections yielded warm season increases and cold season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases.These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.

ABSTRACT
Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades(1). Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will likely result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location(2-4). Relatively cold temperatures also appear to carry risk(2,4). Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate current and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm season increases and cold season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

No MeSH data available.