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Comparative analysis of the effectiveness of three immunization strategies in controlling disease outbreaks in realistic social networks.

Xu Z, Zu Z, Zheng T, Zhang W, Xu Q, Liu J - PLoS ONE (2014)

Bottom Line: Present stochastic strategies are mainly evaluated based on classical network models, such as scale-free networks and small-world networks, and thus are insufficient.The results show all the strategies have decreased the coverage of the epidemics compared to baseline scenario (no control measures).These results could have important significance for epidemic control research and practice.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Center for Biosecurity Strategy Management, Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, Beijing, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
The high incidence of emerging infectious diseases has highlighted the importance of effective immunization strategies, especially the stochastic algorithms based on local available network information. Present stochastic strategies are mainly evaluated based on classical network models, such as scale-free networks and small-world networks, and thus are insufficient. Three frequently referred stochastic immunization strategies-acquaintance immunization, community-bridge immunization, and ring vaccination-were analyzed in this work. The optimal immunization ratios for acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization strategies were investigated, and the effectiveness of these three strategies in controlling the spreading of epidemics were analyzed based on realistic social contact networks. The results show all the strategies have decreased the coverage of the epidemics compared to baseline scenario (no control measures). However the effectiveness of acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization are very limited, with acquaintance immunization slightly outperforming community-bridge immunization. Ring vaccination significantly outperforms acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization, and the sensitivity analysis shows it could be applied to controlling the epidemics with a wide infectivity spectrum. The effectiveness of several classical stochastic immunization strategies was evaluated based on realistic contact networks for the first time in this study. These results could have important significance for epidemic control research and practice.

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The effectiveness of RV.. The contour lines of the fraction of susceptible individuals with respect to time steps with (a) r ranging from 0.1 to 0.9; (b) q ranging from 0.3 to 1.0; (c)  ranging from 1.0 to 3.0.
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pone-0095911-g004: The effectiveness of RV.. The contour lines of the fraction of susceptible individuals with respect to time steps with (a) r ranging from 0.1 to 0.9; (b) q ranging from 0.3 to 1.0; (c) ranging from 1.0 to 3.0.

Mentions: Figure 4 shows the dynamics of the epidemics varies with the parameters. With the increase of r and q, the contour lines of the fraction of susceptible individuals slope upwards, indicating that the effectiveness of RV are strengthened with the increase of the probability of diagnosis of class I individuals and the probability of successful traces for casual contacts, see Figure 4a and Figure 4b. Figure 4c shows the contour lines slope downwards, indicating that the increase of the time lag in tracing for casual contacts will lead to more affected individuals (individuals with states R or V).


Comparative analysis of the effectiveness of three immunization strategies in controlling disease outbreaks in realistic social networks.

Xu Z, Zu Z, Zheng T, Zhang W, Xu Q, Liu J - PLoS ONE (2014)

The effectiveness of RV.. The contour lines of the fraction of susceptible individuals with respect to time steps with (a) r ranging from 0.1 to 0.9; (b) q ranging from 0.3 to 1.0; (c)  ranging from 1.0 to 3.0.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC4008523&req=5

pone-0095911-g004: The effectiveness of RV.. The contour lines of the fraction of susceptible individuals with respect to time steps with (a) r ranging from 0.1 to 0.9; (b) q ranging from 0.3 to 1.0; (c) ranging from 1.0 to 3.0.
Mentions: Figure 4 shows the dynamics of the epidemics varies with the parameters. With the increase of r and q, the contour lines of the fraction of susceptible individuals slope upwards, indicating that the effectiveness of RV are strengthened with the increase of the probability of diagnosis of class I individuals and the probability of successful traces for casual contacts, see Figure 4a and Figure 4b. Figure 4c shows the contour lines slope downwards, indicating that the increase of the time lag in tracing for casual contacts will lead to more affected individuals (individuals with states R or V).

Bottom Line: Present stochastic strategies are mainly evaluated based on classical network models, such as scale-free networks and small-world networks, and thus are insufficient.The results show all the strategies have decreased the coverage of the epidemics compared to baseline scenario (no control measures).These results could have important significance for epidemic control research and practice.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Center for Biosecurity Strategy Management, Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, Beijing, P. R. China.

ABSTRACT
The high incidence of emerging infectious diseases has highlighted the importance of effective immunization strategies, especially the stochastic algorithms based on local available network information. Present stochastic strategies are mainly evaluated based on classical network models, such as scale-free networks and small-world networks, and thus are insufficient. Three frequently referred stochastic immunization strategies-acquaintance immunization, community-bridge immunization, and ring vaccination-were analyzed in this work. The optimal immunization ratios for acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization strategies were investigated, and the effectiveness of these three strategies in controlling the spreading of epidemics were analyzed based on realistic social contact networks. The results show all the strategies have decreased the coverage of the epidemics compared to baseline scenario (no control measures). However the effectiveness of acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization are very limited, with acquaintance immunization slightly outperforming community-bridge immunization. Ring vaccination significantly outperforms acquaintance immunization and community-bridge immunization, and the sensitivity analysis shows it could be applied to controlling the epidemics with a wide infectivity spectrum. The effectiveness of several classical stochastic immunization strategies was evaluated based on realistic contact networks for the first time in this study. These results could have important significance for epidemic control research and practice.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus