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A combination of cross correlation and trend analyses reveals that Kawasaki disease is a pollen-induced delayed-type hyper-sensitivity disease.

Awaya A, Nishimura C - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2014)

Bottom Line: Short-term changes in the number of KD patients showed a significant positive cross correlation (CC) with 9- to 10-month delay following pollen releases, and a smaller but significant CC with 3- to 4-month delay.Further, a temporal relationship revealed by positive CC distribution showed that pollen release preceded KD development, suggesting that pollen release leads to KD development.A trend in patient numbers was fitted by an exponential curve with the time constant of 0.005494.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Dermatology & Epidemiology Research Institute (DERI), 4978 Totsuka-cho, Totsuka-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 244-0003, Japan. awaya@home.email.ne.jp.

ABSTRACT
Based on ecological analyses we proposed in 2003 the relation of Kawasaki Disease (KD) onset causing acute febrile systemic vasculitis, and pollen exposure. This study was aimed at investigating the correlation between pollen release and the change in the numbers of KD patients from 1991 to 2002 in Kanagawa, Japan. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients and medium- to long-term trends were analyzed separately. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients showed a significant positive cross correlation (CC) with 9- to 10-month delay following pollen releases, and a smaller but significant CC with 3- to 4-month delay. Further, a temporal relationship revealed by positive CC distribution showed that pollen release preceded KD development, suggesting that pollen release leads to KD development. A trend in patient numbers was fitted by an exponential curve with the time constant of 0.005494. We hypothesized that the trend was caused by the cumulative effects of pollen exposure for elapsed months on patients who may develop KD. By comparing the time constants of fitted exponential curve for each pollen accumulation period with 0.005494, the exposure period was estimated to be 21.4 months, which explains why approximately 50% of patients developed KD within 24 months from birth.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Trend line for the integrated pollen numbers for a fixed integration period (20 months) for each month during the study period Zm(t). is the integrated pollen numbers for m months. For example, if m = 20, its trend line fitted by exponential function was 12606e0.005773t. Vertical axis: pollen numbers (Po. Nos.). Horizontal axis: time t.
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ijerph-11-02628-f004: Trend line for the integrated pollen numbers for a fixed integration period (20 months) for each month during the study period Zm(t). is the integrated pollen numbers for m months. For example, if m = 20, its trend line fitted by exponential function was 12606e0.005773t. Vertical axis: pollen numbers (Po. Nos.). Horizontal axis: time t.

Mentions: Figure 4 shows an example where m = 20 with the time constant being 0.005773. Figure 5 shows the time constant j(m) of the fitted exponential curve for each m. Comparing j(m) with 0.005494, the time constant of KD Pt. Nos., the estimated pollen exposure period was 21.4 months.


A combination of cross correlation and trend analyses reveals that Kawasaki disease is a pollen-induced delayed-type hyper-sensitivity disease.

Awaya A, Nishimura C - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2014)

Trend line for the integrated pollen numbers for a fixed integration period (20 months) for each month during the study period Zm(t). is the integrated pollen numbers for m months. For example, if m = 20, its trend line fitted by exponential function was 12606e0.005773t. Vertical axis: pollen numbers (Po. Nos.). Horizontal axis: time t.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3986995&req=5

ijerph-11-02628-f004: Trend line for the integrated pollen numbers for a fixed integration period (20 months) for each month during the study period Zm(t). is the integrated pollen numbers for m months. For example, if m = 20, its trend line fitted by exponential function was 12606e0.005773t. Vertical axis: pollen numbers (Po. Nos.). Horizontal axis: time t.
Mentions: Figure 4 shows an example where m = 20 with the time constant being 0.005773. Figure 5 shows the time constant j(m) of the fitted exponential curve for each m. Comparing j(m) with 0.005494, the time constant of KD Pt. Nos., the estimated pollen exposure period was 21.4 months.

Bottom Line: Short-term changes in the number of KD patients showed a significant positive cross correlation (CC) with 9- to 10-month delay following pollen releases, and a smaller but significant CC with 3- to 4-month delay.Further, a temporal relationship revealed by positive CC distribution showed that pollen release preceded KD development, suggesting that pollen release leads to KD development.A trend in patient numbers was fitted by an exponential curve with the time constant of 0.005494.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Dermatology & Epidemiology Research Institute (DERI), 4978 Totsuka-cho, Totsuka-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 244-0003, Japan. awaya@home.email.ne.jp.

ABSTRACT
Based on ecological analyses we proposed in 2003 the relation of Kawasaki Disease (KD) onset causing acute febrile systemic vasculitis, and pollen exposure. This study was aimed at investigating the correlation between pollen release and the change in the numbers of KD patients from 1991 to 2002 in Kanagawa, Japan. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients and medium- to long-term trends were analyzed separately. Short-term changes in the number of KD patients showed a significant positive cross correlation (CC) with 9- to 10-month delay following pollen releases, and a smaller but significant CC with 3- to 4-month delay. Further, a temporal relationship revealed by positive CC distribution showed that pollen release preceded KD development, suggesting that pollen release leads to KD development. A trend in patient numbers was fitted by an exponential curve with the time constant of 0.005494. We hypothesized that the trend was caused by the cumulative effects of pollen exposure for elapsed months on patients who may develop KD. By comparing the time constants of fitted exponential curve for each pollen accumulation period with 0.005494, the exposure period was estimated to be 21.4 months, which explains why approximately 50% of patients developed KD within 24 months from birth.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus