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The impact of taxation reduction on smoking in youth between 1990 and 1999: results from a reconstructed cohort analysis of the Canadian Community Health Surveys.

Birkett NJ - PLoS ONE (2014)

Bottom Line: There was a strong increase in smoking in youth in the years following the reduction in tobacco taxes.The number of excess daily smokers for people born between 1977 and 1985 that can be linked to the taxation reduction is about 190,000.There is strong evidence that reduction of tobacco taxes to combat smuggling had an adverse impact on smoking rates in youth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine and the R.S. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

ABSTRACT

Background: Increases in taxation can contribute to smoking control. In the early 1990's, tobacco smuggling rates in Canada increased dramatically. Governments responded with a substantial reduction in taxes on tobacco products. This study examines the impact of these tax changes on smoking in youth in Canada.

Methods: Data on smoking from three consecutive cycles of the Canadian Community Health Surveys were combined and analyzed using a reconstructed cohort approach. Age, sex and calendar year specific rates of smoking experimentation and the onset of daily smoking were estimated for youth. Estimates apply to the entire Canadian population.

Results: There was a strong increase in smoking in youth in the years following the reduction in tobacco taxes. The increase was stronger in women. The rates returned to pre-1990 rates by about 2002. The number of excess daily smokers for people born between 1977 and 1985 that can be linked to the taxation reduction is about 190,000.

Interpretation: There is strong evidence that reduction of tobacco taxes to combat smuggling had an adverse impact on smoking rates in youth.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Relative risk of Onset of Daily Smoking.Relative risk of onset of daily smoking between 1980 and 2003. Reference year: 1990. Estimates created using negative binomial regression modeling. Each plot displays the relative risk with approximate 95% confidence intervals. The blue line is the line of  effect (RR = 1.0). The green line shows the estimated smoothed effect between 1993 and 1998. All plots show a gradual decline pre-1990 followed by an increase in the 1990’s which started declining again in the late 1990’s. (A) Males and females combined. (B) Males only (C) Females only.
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pone-0093412-g004: Relative risk of Onset of Daily Smoking.Relative risk of onset of daily smoking between 1980 and 2003. Reference year: 1990. Estimates created using negative binomial regression modeling. Each plot displays the relative risk with approximate 95% confidence intervals. The blue line is the line of effect (RR = 1.0). The green line shows the estimated smoothed effect between 1993 and 1998. All plots show a gradual decline pre-1990 followed by an increase in the 1990’s which started declining again in the late 1990’s. (A) Males and females combined. (B) Males only (C) Females only.

Mentions: The relative risk of the onset of daily smoking for each year from 1980 to 2003 is shown in smoothed plots in Figure 4, which also present an estimate for the common effect for the 1993–1998 time period. There is a general decline in risk to about 1990, followed by an upswing to a peak level in 1997 and a steady decrease up to 2003. Compared to smoking experimentation, the peak rate appears delayed by about 2 years. The impact of the lowered taxation can be seen by examining the estimated onset rates for the years 1993 to 1998. Contrast testing found that the rates during these years were significantly higher than the reference year in the male/female combined group and in females alone, but not in males alone. There was no evidence that the excess rate varied across the 6 year window (Table 3).


The impact of taxation reduction on smoking in youth between 1990 and 1999: results from a reconstructed cohort analysis of the Canadian Community Health Surveys.

Birkett NJ - PLoS ONE (2014)

Relative risk of Onset of Daily Smoking.Relative risk of onset of daily smoking between 1980 and 2003. Reference year: 1990. Estimates created using negative binomial regression modeling. Each plot displays the relative risk with approximate 95% confidence intervals. The blue line is the line of  effect (RR = 1.0). The green line shows the estimated smoothed effect between 1993 and 1998. All plots show a gradual decline pre-1990 followed by an increase in the 1990’s which started declining again in the late 1990’s. (A) Males and females combined. (B) Males only (C) Females only.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3974776&req=5

pone-0093412-g004: Relative risk of Onset of Daily Smoking.Relative risk of onset of daily smoking between 1980 and 2003. Reference year: 1990. Estimates created using negative binomial regression modeling. Each plot displays the relative risk with approximate 95% confidence intervals. The blue line is the line of effect (RR = 1.0). The green line shows the estimated smoothed effect between 1993 and 1998. All plots show a gradual decline pre-1990 followed by an increase in the 1990’s which started declining again in the late 1990’s. (A) Males and females combined. (B) Males only (C) Females only.
Mentions: The relative risk of the onset of daily smoking for each year from 1980 to 2003 is shown in smoothed plots in Figure 4, which also present an estimate for the common effect for the 1993–1998 time period. There is a general decline in risk to about 1990, followed by an upswing to a peak level in 1997 and a steady decrease up to 2003. Compared to smoking experimentation, the peak rate appears delayed by about 2 years. The impact of the lowered taxation can be seen by examining the estimated onset rates for the years 1993 to 1998. Contrast testing found that the rates during these years were significantly higher than the reference year in the male/female combined group and in females alone, but not in males alone. There was no evidence that the excess rate varied across the 6 year window (Table 3).

Bottom Line: There was a strong increase in smoking in youth in the years following the reduction in tobacco taxes.The number of excess daily smokers for people born between 1977 and 1985 that can be linked to the taxation reduction is about 190,000.There is strong evidence that reduction of tobacco taxes to combat smuggling had an adverse impact on smoking rates in youth.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine and the R.S. McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

ABSTRACT

Background: Increases in taxation can contribute to smoking control. In the early 1990's, tobacco smuggling rates in Canada increased dramatically. Governments responded with a substantial reduction in taxes on tobacco products. This study examines the impact of these tax changes on smoking in youth in Canada.

Methods: Data on smoking from three consecutive cycles of the Canadian Community Health Surveys were combined and analyzed using a reconstructed cohort approach. Age, sex and calendar year specific rates of smoking experimentation and the onset of daily smoking were estimated for youth. Estimates apply to the entire Canadian population.

Results: There was a strong increase in smoking in youth in the years following the reduction in tobacco taxes. The increase was stronger in women. The rates returned to pre-1990 rates by about 2002. The number of excess daily smokers for people born between 1977 and 1985 that can be linked to the taxation reduction is about 190,000.

Interpretation: There is strong evidence that reduction of tobacco taxes to combat smuggling had an adverse impact on smoking rates in youth.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus