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Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

Sujaritpong S, Dear K, Cope M, Walsh S, Kjellstrom T - Int J Biometeorol (2013)

Bottom Line: Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations.Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty.The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Canberra, ACT, Australia, u4742983@anu.edu.au.

ABSTRACT
Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

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Major steps for projecting health impacts associated with air pollution and climate change. ∆H Change in health outcome resulting from changes in air pollution exposure, R baseline annual mortality or morbidity rate, β log relative risk associated with a unit change in air pollution exposure, ΔC estimated change in air pollution concentration, Pop future exposed population
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Fig1: Major steps for projecting health impacts associated with air pollution and climate change. ∆H Change in health outcome resulting from changes in air pollution exposure, R baseline annual mortality or morbidity rate, β log relative risk associated with a unit change in air pollution exposure, ΔC estimated change in air pollution concentration, Pop future exposed population

Mentions: Studies attempting to estimate the health impacts, although sharing the same basis of the projections, have used different methods, each tailored to meet their goals and local context. Here we briefly summarise methods applied in individual studies that generally involve climate, air quality and health impact projections as depicted in Fig. 1. The output from a climate projection is coupled with an AQM to predict future air quality. The predicted change in air pollution is then used with a concentration-response function for predicting health impacts.Fig. 1


Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology.

Sujaritpong S, Dear K, Cope M, Walsh S, Kjellstrom T - Int J Biometeorol (2013)

Major steps for projecting health impacts associated with air pollution and climate change. ∆H Change in health outcome resulting from changes in air pollution exposure, R baseline annual mortality or morbidity rate, β log relative risk associated with a unit change in air pollution exposure, ΔC estimated change in air pollution concentration, Pop future exposed population
© Copyright Policy - OpenAccess
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3936128&req=5

Fig1: Major steps for projecting health impacts associated with air pollution and climate change. ∆H Change in health outcome resulting from changes in air pollution exposure, R baseline annual mortality or morbidity rate, β log relative risk associated with a unit change in air pollution exposure, ΔC estimated change in air pollution concentration, Pop future exposed population
Mentions: Studies attempting to estimate the health impacts, although sharing the same basis of the projections, have used different methods, each tailored to meet their goals and local context. Here we briefly summarise methods applied in individual studies that generally involve climate, air quality and health impact projections as depicted in Fig. 1. The output from a climate projection is coupled with an AQM to predict future air quality. The predicted change in air pollution is then used with a concentration-response function for predicting health impacts.Fig. 1

Bottom Line: Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations.Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty.The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Canberra, ACT, Australia, u4742983@anu.edu.au.

ABSTRACT
Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus