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An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

Baca M, Läderach P, Haggar J, Schroth G, Ovalle O - PLoS ONE (2014)

Bottom Line: Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico.High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force.Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua.

ABSTRACT
The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

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Framework to assess the vulnerability of coffee communities and to identify strategies for adaptation to climate change.
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pone-0088463-g001: Framework to assess the vulnerability of coffee communities and to identify strategies for adaptation to climate change.

Mentions: These factors are related to the interaction between climate change and access and availability of resources to farming families. Exposure is quantified by modelled coffee crop suitability change comparing current and future climates, representing how familieś livelihoods will be impacted by climate change. Sensitivity and adaptive capacity are measured by indicators based on family resources-such as-natural, human, social, physical and financial capital [1]. We quantified vulnerability levels by combining exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Then, we identified adaptation strategies based on vulnerability levels applying participatory methods with coffee producing communities and organizations (Figure 1). The communities and organizations included were from four countries. The study was part of a development project seeking to facilitate adaptation to climate change among coffee producers that was implemented in Mexico, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador. These countries represent a range of economic and social development in the region from Nicaragua the poorest to Mexico the richest country.


An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

Baca M, Läderach P, Haggar J, Schroth G, Ovalle O - PLoS ONE (2014)

Framework to assess the vulnerability of coffee communities and to identify strategies for adaptation to climate change.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3935832&req=5

pone-0088463-g001: Framework to assess the vulnerability of coffee communities and to identify strategies for adaptation to climate change.
Mentions: These factors are related to the interaction between climate change and access and availability of resources to farming families. Exposure is quantified by modelled coffee crop suitability change comparing current and future climates, representing how familieś livelihoods will be impacted by climate change. Sensitivity and adaptive capacity are measured by indicators based on family resources-such as-natural, human, social, physical and financial capital [1]. We quantified vulnerability levels by combining exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Then, we identified adaptation strategies based on vulnerability levels applying participatory methods with coffee producing communities and organizations (Figure 1). The communities and organizations included were from four countries. The study was part of a development project seeking to facilitate adaptation to climate change among coffee producers that was implemented in Mexico, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador. These countries represent a range of economic and social development in the region from Nicaragua the poorest to Mexico the richest country.

Bottom Line: Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico.High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force.Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Managua, Nicaragua.

ABSTRACT
The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus