Limits...
The impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality in Sydney.

Physick W, Cope M, Lee S - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2014)

Bottom Line: As there is currently uncertainty regarding a threshold concentration below which ozone does not impact on mortality, we calculated mortality estimates for the three daily maximum 1-hr ozone concentration thresholds of 0, 25 and 40 ppb.Interestingly, the largest increases do not correspond spatially to the largest ozone increases or the densest population centres.The distribution pattern of changes does not seem to vary with threshold value, while the magnitude only varies slightly.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Station Street, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia. bill.physick@csiro.au.

ABSTRACT
Coupled global, regional and chemical transport models are now being used with relative-risk functions to determine the impact of climate change on human health. Studies have been carried out for global and regional scales, and in our paper we examine the impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality at the local scale across an urban metropolis (Sydney, Australia). Using three coupled models, with a grid spacing of 3 km for the chemical transport model (CTM), and a mortality relative risk function of 1.0006 per 1 ppb increase in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration, we evaluated the change in ozone concentrations and mortality between decades 1996-2005 and 2051-2060. The global model was run with the A2 emissions scenario. As there is currently uncertainty regarding a threshold concentration below which ozone does not impact on mortality, we calculated mortality estimates for the three daily maximum 1-hr ozone concentration thresholds of 0, 25 and 40 ppb. The mortality increase for 2051-2060 ranges from 2.3% for a 0 ppb threshold to 27.3% for a 40 ppb threshold, although the numerical increases differ little. Our modeling approach is able to identify the variation in ozone-related mortality changes at a suburban scale, estimating that climate change could lead to an additional 55 to 65 deaths across Sydney in the decade 2051-2060. Interestingly, the largest increases do not correspond spatially to the largest ozone increases or the densest population centres. The distribution pattern of changes does not seem to vary with threshold value, while the magnitude only varies slightly.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Daily 1 h maximum ozone concentration (ppb) averaged over the period 1996–2005, with a threshold value of 40 ppb subtracted (negative values are set to zero). Contours indicate elevation above sea level at 50 m intervals up to 850 m. Symbols indicate locations of air quality stations in the EPA New South Wales monitoring network. Values on axes in all Figures are distance in meters.
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ijerph-11-01034-f001: Daily 1 h maximum ozone concentration (ppb) averaged over the period 1996–2005, with a threshold value of 40 ppb subtracted (negative values are set to zero). Contours indicate elevation above sea level at 50 m intervals up to 850 m. Symbols indicate locations of air quality stations in the EPA New South Wales monitoring network. Values on axes in all Figures are distance in meters.

Mentions: Figure 1 shows the distribution of the daily 1 h maximum ozone concentration, with a threshold value of 40 ppb subtracted, averaged over the period 1996–2005. The largest values are found to the southwest of Sydney and this is consistent with the regular sea-breeze transport of urban emissions to this area by the end of the day [22]. Highest ozone concentrations are found here as the urban plume has sufficient NOx to continue ozone production while there is still daylight. Titration of ozone by NOx sources in the metropolitan area also contributes to the lower concentrations nearer to the coastline.


The impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality in Sydney.

Physick W, Cope M, Lee S - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2014)

Daily 1 h maximum ozone concentration (ppb) averaged over the period 1996–2005, with a threshold value of 40 ppb subtracted (negative values are set to zero). Contours indicate elevation above sea level at 50 m intervals up to 850 m. Symbols indicate locations of air quality stations in the EPA New South Wales monitoring network. Values on axes in all Figures are distance in meters.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3924490&req=5

ijerph-11-01034-f001: Daily 1 h maximum ozone concentration (ppb) averaged over the period 1996–2005, with a threshold value of 40 ppb subtracted (negative values are set to zero). Contours indicate elevation above sea level at 50 m intervals up to 850 m. Symbols indicate locations of air quality stations in the EPA New South Wales monitoring network. Values on axes in all Figures are distance in meters.
Mentions: Figure 1 shows the distribution of the daily 1 h maximum ozone concentration, with a threshold value of 40 ppb subtracted, averaged over the period 1996–2005. The largest values are found to the southwest of Sydney and this is consistent with the regular sea-breeze transport of urban emissions to this area by the end of the day [22]. Highest ozone concentrations are found here as the urban plume has sufficient NOx to continue ozone production while there is still daylight. Titration of ozone by NOx sources in the metropolitan area also contributes to the lower concentrations nearer to the coastline.

Bottom Line: As there is currently uncertainty regarding a threshold concentration below which ozone does not impact on mortality, we calculated mortality estimates for the three daily maximum 1-hr ozone concentration thresholds of 0, 25 and 40 ppb.Interestingly, the largest increases do not correspond spatially to the largest ozone increases or the densest population centres.The distribution pattern of changes does not seem to vary with threshold value, while the magnitude only varies slightly.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Station Street, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia. bill.physick@csiro.au.

ABSTRACT
Coupled global, regional and chemical transport models are now being used with relative-risk functions to determine the impact of climate change on human health. Studies have been carried out for global and regional scales, and in our paper we examine the impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality at the local scale across an urban metropolis (Sydney, Australia). Using three coupled models, with a grid spacing of 3 km for the chemical transport model (CTM), and a mortality relative risk function of 1.0006 per 1 ppb increase in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration, we evaluated the change in ozone concentrations and mortality between decades 1996-2005 and 2051-2060. The global model was run with the A2 emissions scenario. As there is currently uncertainty regarding a threshold concentration below which ozone does not impact on mortality, we calculated mortality estimates for the three daily maximum 1-hr ozone concentration thresholds of 0, 25 and 40 ppb. The mortality increase for 2051-2060 ranges from 2.3% for a 0 ppb threshold to 27.3% for a 40 ppb threshold, although the numerical increases differ little. Our modeling approach is able to identify the variation in ozone-related mortality changes at a suburban scale, estimating that climate change could lead to an additional 55 to 65 deaths across Sydney in the decade 2051-2060. Interestingly, the largest increases do not correspond spatially to the largest ozone increases or the densest population centres. The distribution pattern of changes does not seem to vary with threshold value, while the magnitude only varies slightly.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus