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Variation in the distribution of four cacti species due to climate change in Chihuahua, Mexico.

Cortes L, Domínguez I, Lebgue T, Viramontes O, Melgoza A, Pinedo C, Camarillo J - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Bottom Line: With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050.E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080.M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico. lcortes@uach.mx.

ABSTRACT
This study is about four cacti species in the state of Chihuahua, (Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii). Geographic distribution was inferred with MaxEnt. Projection was estimated under three scenarios simulated from IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B) and four periods (2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. MaxEnt projects a species decrease in 2020 under scenario A2, increasing in the following years. In 2080 all species, except E. dasyacanthus, will occupy a larger area than their current one. Scenario B1 projected for 2050 a decrease for all species, and in 2080 all species except E. dasyacanthus will increase their area. With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050. E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080. M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080. Some species will remain stable on their areas despite climate changes, and other species may be affected under the conditions of the A1B scenario. It is important to continue with studies which give a broader perspective about the consequences of climate change, thus enabling decision-making about resource management.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Coryphantha macromeris considering a liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
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ijerph-11-00390-f001: Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Coryphantha macromeris considering a liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).

Mentions: The data presented in Table 1 show the results from MaxEnt modeling. It is observed how the four cacti species will be located on scenario A2 (Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4), with a decrease in relation to the potential area by the year 2020. This decrease can be taken as non-significant for the Coryphantha macromeris and Mammillaria lasiacantha species because in the years 2050 and 2080 they have a major increase in their potential area that in the case of Coryphantha macromeris is larger than it is currently.


Variation in the distribution of four cacti species due to climate change in Chihuahua, Mexico.

Cortes L, Domínguez I, Lebgue T, Viramontes O, Melgoza A, Pinedo C, Camarillo J - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Coryphantha macromeris considering a liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3924450&req=5

ijerph-11-00390-f001: Potential distribution models (MaxEnt) for Coryphantha macromeris considering a liberal A2 temperature climatic scenario (current, 2020, 2050 and 2080).
Mentions: The data presented in Table 1 show the results from MaxEnt modeling. It is observed how the four cacti species will be located on scenario A2 (Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4), with a decrease in relation to the potential area by the year 2020. This decrease can be taken as non-significant for the Coryphantha macromeris and Mammillaria lasiacantha species because in the years 2050 and 2080 they have a major increase in their potential area that in the case of Coryphantha macromeris is larger than it is currently.

Bottom Line: With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050.E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080.M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico R. Almada Km 1, Chihuahua, Chih. 31000, Mexico. lcortes@uach.mx.

ABSTRACT
This study is about four cacti species in the state of Chihuahua, (Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii). Geographic distribution was inferred with MaxEnt. Projection was estimated under three scenarios simulated from IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B) and four periods (2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. MaxEnt projects a species decrease in 2020 under scenario A2, increasing in the following years. In 2080 all species, except E. dasyacanthus, will occupy a larger area than their current one. Scenario B1 projected for 2050 a decrease for all species, and in 2080 all species except E. dasyacanthus will increase their area. With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050. E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080. M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080. Some species will remain stable on their areas despite climate changes, and other species may be affected under the conditions of the A1B scenario. It is important to continue with studies which give a broader perspective about the consequences of climate change, thus enabling decision-making about resource management.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus