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Spatio-temporal distribution and hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in northern Thailand.

Samphutthanon R, Tripathi NK, Ninsawat S, Duboz R - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Bottom Line: The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons.When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time.In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. ratchaphon.samphutthanon@ait.ac.th.

ABSTRACT
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging viral disease, and at present, there are no antiviral drugs or vaccines available to control it. Outbreaks have persisted for the past 10 years, particularly in northern Thailand. This study aimed to elucidate the phenomenon of HFMD outbreaks from 2003 to 2012 using general statistics and spatial-temporal analysis employing a GIS-based method. The spatial analysis examined data at the village level to create a map representing the distribution pattern, mean center, standard deviation ellipse and hotspots for each outbreak. A temporal analysis was used to analyze the correlation between monthly case data and meteorological factors. The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons. The distribution of outbreaks exhibited a clustered pattern. Most mean centers and standard deviation ellipses occurred in similar areas. The linear directional mean values of the outbreaks were oriented toward the south. When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time. An autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when patient cases subsided. In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Spatio-temporal ring map: The inner ring shows the spatial distribution of hotspots and morbidity; the outer ring shows the temporal distribution.
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Related In: Results  -  Collection

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ijerph-11-00312-f011: Spatio-temporal ring map: The inner ring shows the spatial distribution of hotspots and morbidity; the outer ring shows the temporal distribution.

Mentions: The Hybrid ring maps illustrate the combination of the results of the spatial and temporal analyses. Ring mapping aids in better understanding HFMD outbreak patterns in both geographical and temporal terms. In addition, the map of centers, also called a morbidity map, which is derived from the kernel density method, can illustrate the number of patient cases. The map also displays hotspots derived by the LISA method, which answers the question of “how to”. Moreover, the rings visually display the result of the spatial distribution analysis of four values: patient cases per area, patient cases per capita, NN and Moran’s I value. This was carried out for every year from 2003 to 2012, but for simplicity, only the ring maps showing the highest (2012) and lowest (2004) HFMD incidences were included in Figure 11.


Spatio-temporal distribution and hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in northern Thailand.

Samphutthanon R, Tripathi NK, Ninsawat S, Duboz R - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Spatio-temporal ring map: The inner ring shows the spatial distribution of hotspots and morbidity; the outer ring shows the temporal distribution.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3924446&req=5

ijerph-11-00312-f011: Spatio-temporal ring map: The inner ring shows the spatial distribution of hotspots and morbidity; the outer ring shows the temporal distribution.
Mentions: The Hybrid ring maps illustrate the combination of the results of the spatial and temporal analyses. Ring mapping aids in better understanding HFMD outbreak patterns in both geographical and temporal terms. In addition, the map of centers, also called a morbidity map, which is derived from the kernel density method, can illustrate the number of patient cases. The map also displays hotspots derived by the LISA method, which answers the question of “how to”. Moreover, the rings visually display the result of the spatial distribution analysis of four values: patient cases per area, patient cases per capita, NN and Moran’s I value. This was carried out for every year from 2003 to 2012, but for simplicity, only the ring maps showing the highest (2012) and lowest (2004) HFMD incidences were included in Figure 11.

Bottom Line: The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons.When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time.In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. ratchaphon.samphutthanon@ait.ac.th.

ABSTRACT
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging viral disease, and at present, there are no antiviral drugs or vaccines available to control it. Outbreaks have persisted for the past 10 years, particularly in northern Thailand. This study aimed to elucidate the phenomenon of HFMD outbreaks from 2003 to 2012 using general statistics and spatial-temporal analysis employing a GIS-based method. The spatial analysis examined data at the village level to create a map representing the distribution pattern, mean center, standard deviation ellipse and hotspots for each outbreak. A temporal analysis was used to analyze the correlation between monthly case data and meteorological factors. The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons. The distribution of outbreaks exhibited a clustered pattern. Most mean centers and standard deviation ellipses occurred in similar areas. The linear directional mean values of the outbreaks were oriented toward the south. When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time. An autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when patient cases subsided. In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus