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Spatio-temporal distribution and hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in northern Thailand.

Samphutthanon R, Tripathi NK, Ninsawat S, Duboz R - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Bottom Line: The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons.When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time.In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. ratchaphon.samphutthanon@ait.ac.th.

ABSTRACT
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging viral disease, and at present, there are no antiviral drugs or vaccines available to control it. Outbreaks have persisted for the past 10 years, particularly in northern Thailand. This study aimed to elucidate the phenomenon of HFMD outbreaks from 2003 to 2012 using general statistics and spatial-temporal analysis employing a GIS-based method. The spatial analysis examined data at the village level to create a map representing the distribution pattern, mean center, standard deviation ellipse and hotspots for each outbreak. A temporal analysis was used to analyze the correlation between monthly case data and meteorological factors. The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons. The distribution of outbreaks exhibited a clustered pattern. Most mean centers and standard deviation ellipses occurred in similar areas. The linear directional mean values of the outbreaks were oriented toward the south. When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time. An autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when patient cases subsided. In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

(a) HFMD Mean Center and Standard Deviation Ellipse and (b) Linear Directional Mean from 2003 to 2012.
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ijerph-11-00312-f007: (a) HFMD Mean Center and Standard Deviation Ellipse and (b) Linear Directional Mean from 2003 to 2012.

Mentions: The analysis of the annual spatial MC revealed that most clusters occurred in the central portion of the study area in the north of Lampang province. The MC for 2003 was in a different location and was far less pronounced compared with the other years. The SDE of 2003 was the smallest, falling within the main area of Lampang and Lamphun provinces. Most SDEs appeared at the same location with the same shape, size and northeast-southwest direction during 2004 to 2012. They appeared primarily in 7 of the 9 provinces, namely in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lamphun, Lampang, Phayao, Phrae and Nan provinces (Figure 7a).


Spatio-temporal distribution and hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in northern Thailand.

Samphutthanon R, Tripathi NK, Ninsawat S, Duboz R - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

(a) HFMD Mean Center and Standard Deviation Ellipse and (b) Linear Directional Mean from 2003 to 2012.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3924446&req=5

ijerph-11-00312-f007: (a) HFMD Mean Center and Standard Deviation Ellipse and (b) Linear Directional Mean from 2003 to 2012.
Mentions: The analysis of the annual spatial MC revealed that most clusters occurred in the central portion of the study area in the north of Lampang province. The MC for 2003 was in a different location and was far less pronounced compared with the other years. The SDE of 2003 was the smallest, falling within the main area of Lampang and Lamphun provinces. Most SDEs appeared at the same location with the same shape, size and northeast-southwest direction during 2004 to 2012. They appeared primarily in 7 of the 9 provinces, namely in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lamphun, Lampang, Phayao, Phrae and Nan provinces (Figure 7a).

Bottom Line: The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons.When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time.In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. ratchaphon.samphutthanon@ait.ac.th.

ABSTRACT
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging viral disease, and at present, there are no antiviral drugs or vaccines available to control it. Outbreaks have persisted for the past 10 years, particularly in northern Thailand. This study aimed to elucidate the phenomenon of HFMD outbreaks from 2003 to 2012 using general statistics and spatial-temporal analysis employing a GIS-based method. The spatial analysis examined data at the village level to create a map representing the distribution pattern, mean center, standard deviation ellipse and hotspots for each outbreak. A temporal analysis was used to analyze the correlation between monthly case data and meteorological factors. The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons. The distribution of outbreaks exhibited a clustered pattern. Most mean centers and standard deviation ellipses occurred in similar areas. The linear directional mean values of the outbreaks were oriented toward the south. When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time. An autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when patient cases subsided. In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus