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Spatio-temporal distribution and hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in northern Thailand.

Samphutthanon R, Tripathi NK, Ninsawat S, Duboz R - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Bottom Line: The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons.When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time.In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. ratchaphon.samphutthanon@ait.ac.th.

ABSTRACT
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging viral disease, and at present, there are no antiviral drugs or vaccines available to control it. Outbreaks have persisted for the past 10 years, particularly in northern Thailand. This study aimed to elucidate the phenomenon of HFMD outbreaks from 2003 to 2012 using general statistics and spatial-temporal analysis employing a GIS-based method. The spatial analysis examined data at the village level to create a map representing the distribution pattern, mean center, standard deviation ellipse and hotspots for each outbreak. A temporal analysis was used to analyze the correlation between monthly case data and meteorological factors. The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons. The distribution of outbreaks exhibited a clustered pattern. Most mean centers and standard deviation ellipses occurred in similar areas. The linear directional mean values of the outbreaks were oriented toward the south. When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time. An autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when patient cases subsided. In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

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HFMD case counts per month from 2003 to 2012 related to climatic factors.
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Related In: Results  -  Collection

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ijerph-11-00312-f005: HFMD case counts per month from 2003 to 2012 related to climatic factors.

Mentions: The HFMD outbreaks do not directly correlate to the annual seasonal cycle. The temporal outbreak pattern can be described as five waves with a wave occurring every two years (Figure 5). However, the analysis of the correlation between climatic factors and HFMD incidence in terms of Pearson’s correlation coefficient revealed that the overall annual average temperature had a low negative relationship with an HFMD incidence of 0.123, whereas relative humidity and total rainfall exhibited low positive relationships with HFMD of 0.166 and 0.045, respectively.


Spatio-temporal distribution and hotspots of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in northern Thailand.

Samphutthanon R, Tripathi NK, Ninsawat S, Duboz R - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

HFMD case counts per month from 2003 to 2012 related to climatic factors.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3924446&req=5

ijerph-11-00312-f005: HFMD case counts per month from 2003 to 2012 related to climatic factors.
Mentions: The HFMD outbreaks do not directly correlate to the annual seasonal cycle. The temporal outbreak pattern can be described as five waves with a wave occurring every two years (Figure 5). However, the analysis of the correlation between climatic factors and HFMD incidence in terms of Pearson’s correlation coefficient revealed that the overall annual average temperature had a low negative relationship with an HFMD incidence of 0.123, whereas relative humidity and total rainfall exhibited low positive relationships with HFMD of 0.166 and 0.045, respectively.

Bottom Line: The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons.When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time.In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Field of Study, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand. ratchaphon.samphutthanon@ait.ac.th.

ABSTRACT
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is an emerging viral disease, and at present, there are no antiviral drugs or vaccines available to control it. Outbreaks have persisted for the past 10 years, particularly in northern Thailand. This study aimed to elucidate the phenomenon of HFMD outbreaks from 2003 to 2012 using general statistics and spatial-temporal analysis employing a GIS-based method. The spatial analysis examined data at the village level to create a map representing the distribution pattern, mean center, standard deviation ellipse and hotspots for each outbreak. A temporal analysis was used to analyze the correlation between monthly case data and meteorological factors. The results indicate that the disease can occur at any time of the year, but appears to peak in the rainy and cold seasons. The distribution of outbreaks exhibited a clustered pattern. Most mean centers and standard deviation ellipses occurred in similar areas. The linear directional mean values of the outbreaks were oriented toward the south. When separated by season, it was found that there was a significant correlation with the direction of the southwest monsoon at the same time. An autocorrelation analysis revealed that hotspots tended to increase even when patient cases subsided. In particular, a new hotspot was found in the recent year in Mae Hong Son province.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus