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Health in the new scenarios for climate change research.

Ebi KL - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Bottom Line: The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways.Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity.These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: ClimAdapt, LLC, 424 Tyndall Street, Los Altos, CA 94022, USA. krisebi@essllc.org.

ABSTRACT
The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible.

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Challenges space for shared socioeconomic pathways.
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ijerph-11-00030-f001: Challenges space for shared socioeconomic pathways.

Mentions: The challenges space is divided into five domains so that there is a middle development pathway (Figure 1). Along the diagonal axis are (1) sustainability (low challenges to adaptation and mitigation); (2) middle-of-the-road (medium challenges); and (3) fragmentation (high challenges). Off axis are (4) inequality (low challenges to mitigation and high challenges to adaptation); and (5) conventional development (high challenges to mitigation and low challenges to adaptation). The narratives and quantifications of the SSPs describe patterns and trends of how these worlds evolve over time, relative to the middle-of-the-road pathway, which itself evolves. Again, the SSPs do not include assumptions about new adaptation and mitigation polices.


Health in the new scenarios for climate change research.

Ebi KL - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Challenges space for shared socioeconomic pathways.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3924435&req=5

ijerph-11-00030-f001: Challenges space for shared socioeconomic pathways.
Mentions: The challenges space is divided into five domains so that there is a middle development pathway (Figure 1). Along the diagonal axis are (1) sustainability (low challenges to adaptation and mitigation); (2) middle-of-the-road (medium challenges); and (3) fragmentation (high challenges). Off axis are (4) inequality (low challenges to mitigation and high challenges to adaptation); and (5) conventional development (high challenges to mitigation and low challenges to adaptation). The narratives and quantifications of the SSPs describe patterns and trends of how these worlds evolve over time, relative to the middle-of-the-road pathway, which itself evolves. Again, the SSPs do not include assumptions about new adaptation and mitigation polices.

Bottom Line: The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways.Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity.These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: ClimAdapt, LLC, 424 Tyndall Street, Los Altos, CA 94022, USA. krisebi@essllc.org.

ABSTRACT
The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus