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Time trends of Italian former smokers 1980-2009 and 2010-2030 projections using a Bayesian age period cohort model.

Carreras G, Gorini G - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Bottom Line: An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis has been carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on the prevalence of former smokers during 1980-2009.Results showed that awareness of harm from smoking occurred at younger ages with each advancing cohort, and that women were more likely to attempt to stop smoking during pregnancies and breastfeeding, whereas men attempted to quit only when smoking-related diseases became evident.Projections of future trend recorded a further increase in the number of former smokers in future decades, showing an estimate of the "end of smoking" around years 2060 and 2055 in men and women, respectively.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, via delle Oblate 2, Florence 50139, Italy. g.carreras@ispo.toscana.it.

ABSTRACT
This study aimed to describe past time trends of the prevalence of former smokers in Italy and to estimate prevalence projections using a Bayesian approach. An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis has been carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on the prevalence of former smokers during 1980-2009. A Bayesian APC model with an autoregressive structure for the age, period and cohort parameters has been used to estimate future trends. Results showed that awareness of harm from smoking occurred at younger ages with each advancing cohort, and that women were more likely to attempt to stop smoking during pregnancies and breastfeeding, whereas men attempted to quit only when smoking-related diseases became evident. Projections of future trend recorded a further increase in the number of former smokers in future decades, showing an estimate of the "end of smoking" around years 2060 and 2055 in men and women, respectively. The application of the APC analysis to study the prevalence of former smokers turned out to be a useful method for the evaluation of past smoking trends, reflecting the effects of tobacco control policies on time and generations, and to make projections of future trend.

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Age-specific prevalence of former smokers by period, fitted in 1980–2009 (solid line) and projected for 2010–2030 (dotted line) for males and females.
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ijerph-11-00001-f003: Age-specific prevalence of former smokers by period, fitted in 1980–2009 (solid line) and projected for 2010–2030 (dotted line) for males and females.

Mentions: Age-specific former-smoker prevalence fitted and projected by cohort using the APC Bayesian model with the 1980–2009 period as basis for projections are reported in Figure 3. The former smokers in men will continue to show an age-gradient being higher for the older age groups and lower for the younger. The prevalence of former smokers for older men will reach 62.5% of the population in 2030. The prevalence for younger men will reach 19.9%. The prevalence of former smokers in females showed similar values and future trend for all age-classes reaching on average 36.1% of the population in 2030. In females projections showed very fast rates of increase. However, estimates for the last period were highly uncertain. In fact, while the width of the 95% credible intervals for the fitted rates indicated precise estimates, on the other hand projections showed a progressive widening of the credible intervals (data not shown).


Time trends of Italian former smokers 1980-2009 and 2010-2030 projections using a Bayesian age period cohort model.

Carreras G, Gorini G - Int J Environ Res Public Health (2013)

Age-specific prevalence of former smokers by period, fitted in 1980–2009 (solid line) and projected for 2010–2030 (dotted line) for males and females.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3924433&req=5

ijerph-11-00001-f003: Age-specific prevalence of former smokers by period, fitted in 1980–2009 (solid line) and projected for 2010–2030 (dotted line) for males and females.
Mentions: Age-specific former-smoker prevalence fitted and projected by cohort using the APC Bayesian model with the 1980–2009 period as basis for projections are reported in Figure 3. The former smokers in men will continue to show an age-gradient being higher for the older age groups and lower for the younger. The prevalence of former smokers for older men will reach 62.5% of the population in 2030. The prevalence for younger men will reach 19.9%. The prevalence of former smokers in females showed similar values and future trend for all age-classes reaching on average 36.1% of the population in 2030. In females projections showed very fast rates of increase. However, estimates for the last period were highly uncertain. In fact, while the width of the 95% credible intervals for the fitted rates indicated precise estimates, on the other hand projections showed a progressive widening of the credible intervals (data not shown).

Bottom Line: An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis has been carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on the prevalence of former smokers during 1980-2009.Results showed that awareness of harm from smoking occurred at younger ages with each advancing cohort, and that women were more likely to attempt to stop smoking during pregnancies and breastfeeding, whereas men attempted to quit only when smoking-related diseases became evident.Projections of future trend recorded a further increase in the number of former smokers in future decades, showing an estimate of the "end of smoking" around years 2060 and 2055 in men and women, respectively.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Research Institute, via delle Oblate 2, Florence 50139, Italy. g.carreras@ispo.toscana.it.

ABSTRACT
This study aimed to describe past time trends of the prevalence of former smokers in Italy and to estimate prevalence projections using a Bayesian approach. An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis has been carried out in order to investigate the effect of the age, period and birth cohort on the prevalence of former smokers during 1980-2009. A Bayesian APC model with an autoregressive structure for the age, period and cohort parameters has been used to estimate future trends. Results showed that awareness of harm from smoking occurred at younger ages with each advancing cohort, and that women were more likely to attempt to stop smoking during pregnancies and breastfeeding, whereas men attempted to quit only when smoking-related diseases became evident. Projections of future trend recorded a further increase in the number of former smokers in future decades, showing an estimate of the "end of smoking" around years 2060 and 2055 in men and women, respectively. The application of the APC analysis to study the prevalence of former smokers turned out to be a useful method for the evaluation of past smoking trends, reflecting the effects of tobacco control policies on time and generations, and to make projections of future trend.

Show MeSH