Limits...
A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.

Rohling EJ, Haigh ID, Foster GL, Roberts AP, Grant KM - Sci Rep (2013)

Bottom Line: This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability.Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes.The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200 Australia [2] Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.

ABSTRACT
During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus

Probabilistic assessment of natural sea-level change based on equations 1–3.The heavy line is the probability maximum (peak of the probability distribution), the grey envelope marks the 68% probability interval, and the dashed blue (red) lines mark the 90% (95%) probability intervals, respectively. (a). Rates of SLR relative to 1700, in m cy−1 (i.e., 100 × result from equation 1). (b). SLR after equation (2). (c). Zoomed-in portion of (b), ending at 2200. The brown wedge is the range of semi-empirical projections by Vermeer and Rahmstorf12, the heavy dot outlines the most-likely projection by Pfeffer et al9., and the heavy dashed black line represents the full range of SLR estimates of Pfeffer et al9. Historical sea-level reconstructions of Jevrejeva et al11. (green dots) and Church and White51 (magenta dots) are also shown. (d). As (c), but zoomed in on 1700–2100.
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f3: Probabilistic assessment of natural sea-level change based on equations 1–3.The heavy line is the probability maximum (peak of the probability distribution), the grey envelope marks the 68% probability interval, and the dashed blue (red) lines mark the 90% (95%) probability intervals, respectively. (a). Rates of SLR relative to 1700, in m cy−1 (i.e., 100 × result from equation 1). (b). SLR after equation (2). (c). Zoomed-in portion of (b), ending at 2200. The brown wedge is the range of semi-empirical projections by Vermeer and Rahmstorf12, the heavy dot outlines the most-likely projection by Pfeffer et al9., and the heavy dashed black line represents the full range of SLR estimates of Pfeffer et al9. Historical sea-level reconstructions of Jevrejeva et al11. (green dots) and Church and White51 (magenta dots) are also shown. (d). As (c), but zoomed in on 1700–2100.

Mentions: Here, we capture the (above) compiled geological observations of past rates, and also of timescales, of ice-volume/sea-level adjustment in broadly defined probability distributions (Methods; Figure 2). We then develop a probabilistic assessment of SLR, and use this natural context to discuss historical SLR trends and future projections (Methods, Figure 3).


A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.

Rohling EJ, Haigh ID, Foster GL, Roberts AP, Grant KM - Sci Rep (2013)

Probabilistic assessment of natural sea-level change based on equations 1–3.The heavy line is the probability maximum (peak of the probability distribution), the grey envelope marks the 68% probability interval, and the dashed blue (red) lines mark the 90% (95%) probability intervals, respectively. (a). Rates of SLR relative to 1700, in m cy−1 (i.e., 100 × result from equation 1). (b). SLR after equation (2). (c). Zoomed-in portion of (b), ending at 2200. The brown wedge is the range of semi-empirical projections by Vermeer and Rahmstorf12, the heavy dot outlines the most-likely projection by Pfeffer et al9., and the heavy dashed black line represents the full range of SLR estimates of Pfeffer et al9. Historical sea-level reconstructions of Jevrejeva et al11. (green dots) and Church and White51 (magenta dots) are also shown. (d). As (c), but zoomed in on 1700–2100.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3860070&req=5

f3: Probabilistic assessment of natural sea-level change based on equations 1–3.The heavy line is the probability maximum (peak of the probability distribution), the grey envelope marks the 68% probability interval, and the dashed blue (red) lines mark the 90% (95%) probability intervals, respectively. (a). Rates of SLR relative to 1700, in m cy−1 (i.e., 100 × result from equation 1). (b). SLR after equation (2). (c). Zoomed-in portion of (b), ending at 2200. The brown wedge is the range of semi-empirical projections by Vermeer and Rahmstorf12, the heavy dot outlines the most-likely projection by Pfeffer et al9., and the heavy dashed black line represents the full range of SLR estimates of Pfeffer et al9. Historical sea-level reconstructions of Jevrejeva et al11. (green dots) and Church and White51 (magenta dots) are also shown. (d). As (c), but zoomed in on 1700–2100.
Mentions: Here, we capture the (above) compiled geological observations of past rates, and also of timescales, of ice-volume/sea-level adjustment in broadly defined probability distributions (Methods; Figure 2). We then develop a probabilistic assessment of SLR, and use this natural context to discuss historical SLR trends and future projections (Methods, Figure 3).

Bottom Line: This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability.Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes.The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: 1] Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200 Australia [2] Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.

ABSTRACT
During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.

No MeSH data available.


Related in: MedlinePlus