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Modelling HIV incidence and survival from age-specific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa.

Mossong J, Grapsa E, Tanser F, Bärnighausen T, Newell ML - AIDS (2013)

Bottom Line: Our model suggests no statistically significant reduction of HIV incidence in the age-group 15-49 years in 2009-2011 compared with 2003-2005.Age-specific and sex-specific model-based HIV incidence estimates were in good agreement with observed cohort-based estimates from the ongoing HIV surveillance.Our catalytic modelling approach using cross-sectional age-specific HIV prevalence data could be useful to monitor trends of HIV incidence and survival in other African settings with a high ART coverage.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: aAfrica Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa bDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA cFaculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

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Fitted cumulative incidence in women (a) and men (b) as a function of age.
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Figure 4: Fitted cumulative incidence in women (a) and men (b) as a function of age.

Mentions: The cumulative incidence by age 50 years, which is equivalent to the probability of having acquired HIV by the age of 50 (assuming current age-specific incidence and in the absence of mortality), varied very little by calendar period, ranging from 0.713 to 0.768 in women and from 0.663 to 0.717 in men (Table 1 and Fig. 4). Although incidence in younger men was lower than in women, a higher incidence during middle ages translates into a similar cumulative incidence by the time men turn 50 years old.


Modelling HIV incidence and survival from age-specific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa.

Mossong J, Grapsa E, Tanser F, Bärnighausen T, Newell ML - AIDS (2013)

Fitted cumulative incidence in women (a) and men (b) as a function of age.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3815011&req=5

Figure 4: Fitted cumulative incidence in women (a) and men (b) as a function of age.
Mentions: The cumulative incidence by age 50 years, which is equivalent to the probability of having acquired HIV by the age of 50 (assuming current age-specific incidence and in the absence of mortality), varied very little by calendar period, ranging from 0.713 to 0.768 in women and from 0.663 to 0.717 in men (Table 1 and Fig. 4). Although incidence in younger men was lower than in women, a higher incidence during middle ages translates into a similar cumulative incidence by the time men turn 50 years old.

Bottom Line: Our model suggests no statistically significant reduction of HIV incidence in the age-group 15-49 years in 2009-2011 compared with 2003-2005.Age-specific and sex-specific model-based HIV incidence estimates were in good agreement with observed cohort-based estimates from the ongoing HIV surveillance.Our catalytic modelling approach using cross-sectional age-specific HIV prevalence data could be useful to monitor trends of HIV incidence and survival in other African settings with a high ART coverage.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: aAfrica Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa bDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA cFaculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus