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Modelling HIV incidence and survival from age-specific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa.

Mossong J, Grapsa E, Tanser F, Bärnighausen T, Newell ML - AIDS (2013)

Bottom Line: Our model suggests no statistically significant reduction of HIV incidence in the age-group 15-49 years in 2009-2011 compared with 2003-2005.Age-specific and sex-specific model-based HIV incidence estimates were in good agreement with observed cohort-based estimates from the ongoing HIV surveillance.Our catalytic modelling approach using cross-sectional age-specific HIV prevalence data could be useful to monitor trends of HIV incidence and survival in other African settings with a high ART coverage.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: aAfrica Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa bDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA cFaculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

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Observed and fitted HIV prevalence as a function of age, sex and calendar period.
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Figure 1: Observed and fitted HIV prevalence as a function of age, sex and calendar period.

Mentions: The age-specific observed and fitted model HIV prevalence estimates in women and men during the three calendar periods 2003–2005, 2006–2008 and 2009–2011 in Fig. 1 indicate a good visual model fit with observed data. The higher dispersion of the observed prevalence in older age groups (most pronounced among men) is indicative of lower numbers of HIV surveillance participants in these age groups (see Supplemental Digital Content 1). This lower sample size is both a reflection of smaller numbers of older men living in the DSS (see Fig. 2 in Tanser et al. [25]) and lower participation rates of older men in HIV surveillance [4].


Modelling HIV incidence and survival from age-specific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa.

Mossong J, Grapsa E, Tanser F, Bärnighausen T, Newell ML - AIDS (2013)

Observed and fitted HIV prevalence as a function of age, sex and calendar period.
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3815011&req=5

Figure 1: Observed and fitted HIV prevalence as a function of age, sex and calendar period.
Mentions: The age-specific observed and fitted model HIV prevalence estimates in women and men during the three calendar periods 2003–2005, 2006–2008 and 2009–2011 in Fig. 1 indicate a good visual model fit with observed data. The higher dispersion of the observed prevalence in older age groups (most pronounced among men) is indicative of lower numbers of HIV surveillance participants in these age groups (see Supplemental Digital Content 1). This lower sample size is both a reflection of smaller numbers of older men living in the DSS (see Fig. 2 in Tanser et al. [25]) and lower participation rates of older men in HIV surveillance [4].

Bottom Line: Our model suggests no statistically significant reduction of HIV incidence in the age-group 15-49 years in 2009-2011 compared with 2003-2005.Age-specific and sex-specific model-based HIV incidence estimates were in good agreement with observed cohort-based estimates from the ongoing HIV surveillance.Our catalytic modelling approach using cross-sectional age-specific HIV prevalence data could be useful to monitor trends of HIV incidence and survival in other African settings with a high ART coverage.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: aAfrica Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa bDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA cFaculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus