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Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

Briggs AD, Mytton OT, Kehlbacher A, Tiffin R, Rayner M, Scarborough P - BMJ (2013)

Bottom Line: Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country.The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups.Both effects warrant further exploration.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: British Heart Foundation Health Promotion Research Group, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.

Design: Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

Setting: United Kingdom.

Population: Adults aged 16 and over.

Intervention: A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.

Main outcome measures: The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.

Results: A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).

Conclusions: A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

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Fig 1 Modelled causal pathway between sugar sweetened drink taxation and obesity
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fig1: Fig 1 Modelled causal pathway between sugar sweetened drink taxation and obesity

Mentions: We used household survey data to estimate the effect of a 20% tax on purchases and consumption of sugar sweetened drinks. We used the estimates generated to derive the change in energy intake, which we then used to model the effect on average body weight and prevalence of obesity in the UK (fig 1). We chose to model the effects on body weight because good evidence (from both trials and epidemiological studies) links regular consumption of sugar sweetened drinks to weight gain.81012 Moreover, data from longitudinal studies support the idea that changes in the price of sugar sweetened drinks are linked to changes in body weight.20 Other groups have used this form of modelling to estimate the effects of a sugar sweetened drink tax on obesity.182122


Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

Briggs AD, Mytton OT, Kehlbacher A, Tiffin R, Rayner M, Scarborough P - BMJ (2013)

Fig 1 Modelled causal pathway between sugar sweetened drink taxation and obesity
© Copyright Policy - open-access
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3814405&req=5

fig1: Fig 1 Modelled causal pathway between sugar sweetened drink taxation and obesity
Mentions: We used household survey data to estimate the effect of a 20% tax on purchases and consumption of sugar sweetened drinks. We used the estimates generated to derive the change in energy intake, which we then used to model the effect on average body weight and prevalence of obesity in the UK (fig 1). We chose to model the effects on body weight because good evidence (from both trials and epidemiological studies) links regular consumption of sugar sweetened drinks to weight gain.81012 Moreover, data from longitudinal studies support the idea that changes in the price of sugar sweetened drinks are linked to changes in body weight.20 Other groups have used this form of modelling to estimate the effects of a sugar sweetened drink tax on obesity.182122

Bottom Line: Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country.The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups.Both effects warrant further exploration.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: British Heart Foundation Health Promotion Research Group, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.

Design: Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

Setting: United Kingdom.

Population: Adults aged 16 and over.

Intervention: A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.

Main outcome measures: The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.

Results: A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).

Conclusions: A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus