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A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

Gardner L, Sarkar S - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i) the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii) the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport.The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports) for targeted dengue surveillance.The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia. l.gardner@unsw.edu.au

ABSTRACT
The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i) the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii) the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports) for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Map illustrating top 100 stopover risk airports identified by the model.
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pone-0072129-g005: Map illustrating top 100 stopover risk airports identified by the model.

Mentions: The most important results of the analysis were the prioritization of stopover and destination airports on the basis of risk. The 100 highest risk stopover airports and destination airports are shown in Figures 5 and 6, respectively. Tables 2 and 3 list, respectively, the high risk destination and stopover airports which are located in non-endemic regions. Table 4 lists the high risks U.S. airports in non-endemic regions, and their corresponding regional suitability. Tables S1 and S2, included as supporting documents, contain the full list of the top 100 high risk airports, their rank and corresponding relative risk for both stopover risk and destination risk, respectively. These tables show that 14 and 26 of the destination and stopover airports in non-endemic regions, respectively, lie in the top 100 highest risk category. For stopover risk, six of the top 10 highest risk airports are in Brazil; no airport in India occurs in the top 10 in spite of its higher population total and population density–only two Indian airports (Delhi and Kolkata) occur in the top 20, in the latter case in spite of low passenger volume. Seven of the top 20 highest risk stopover airports are located in Southeast Asia. Destination risk is more evenly spread across the endemic regions; Brazil has three airports in the top 10 (three in the top 20) and India has two in the top 10 (four in the top 20), and five of the top 10 are in Southeast Asia. In addition, both the Changi Airport in Singapore and Hong Kong International Airport in Hong Kong are located in the top 20 highest risk for both stopover and destination airports; both these airports are among the top 20 busiest airports in the world. There are few African airports in either category; the Murtala Muhammed Airport in Nigeria is the only African airport that falls in the top 20 of either list, ranking 11th in destination risk.


A global airport-based risk model for the spread of dengue infection via the air transport network.

Gardner L, Sarkar S - PLoS ONE (2013)

Map illustrating top 100 stopover risk airports identified by the model.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3756962&req=5

pone-0072129-g005: Map illustrating top 100 stopover risk airports identified by the model.
Mentions: The most important results of the analysis were the prioritization of stopover and destination airports on the basis of risk. The 100 highest risk stopover airports and destination airports are shown in Figures 5 and 6, respectively. Tables 2 and 3 list, respectively, the high risk destination and stopover airports which are located in non-endemic regions. Table 4 lists the high risks U.S. airports in non-endemic regions, and their corresponding regional suitability. Tables S1 and S2, included as supporting documents, contain the full list of the top 100 high risk airports, their rank and corresponding relative risk for both stopover risk and destination risk, respectively. These tables show that 14 and 26 of the destination and stopover airports in non-endemic regions, respectively, lie in the top 100 highest risk category. For stopover risk, six of the top 10 highest risk airports are in Brazil; no airport in India occurs in the top 10 in spite of its higher population total and population density–only two Indian airports (Delhi and Kolkata) occur in the top 20, in the latter case in spite of low passenger volume. Seven of the top 20 highest risk stopover airports are located in Southeast Asia. Destination risk is more evenly spread across the endemic regions; Brazil has three airports in the top 10 (three in the top 20) and India has two in the top 10 (four in the top 20), and five of the top 10 are in Southeast Asia. In addition, both the Changi Airport in Singapore and Hong Kong International Airport in Hong Kong are located in the top 20 highest risk for both stopover and destination airports; both these airports are among the top 20 busiest airports in the world. There are few African airports in either category; the Murtala Muhammed Airport in Nigeria is the only African airport that falls in the top 20 of either list, ranking 11th in destination risk.

Bottom Line: Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i) the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii) the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport.The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports) for targeted dengue surveillance.The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia. l.gardner@unsw.edu.au

ABSTRACT
The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i) the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii) the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports) for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus