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Quantitative analysis of burden of infectious diarrhea associated with floods in northwest of anhui province, china: a mixed method evaluation.

Ding G, Zhang Y, Gao L, Ma W, Li X, Liu J, Liu Q, Jiang B - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: The strongest effect was shown with a 2-day lag in Fuyang and a 5-day lag in Bozhou.Multivariable analysis showed that floods were significantly associated with an increased risk of the number cases of infectious diarrhea (OR = 3.175, 95%CI: 1.126-8.954 in Fuyang; OR = 6.754, 95%CI: 1.954-23.344 in Bozhou).More attention should be paid to particular vulnerable groups, including younger children and elderly, in developing public health preparation and intervention programs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Persistent and heavy rainfall in the upper and middle Huaihe River of China brought about severe floods during the end of June and July 2007. However, there has been no assessment on the association between the floods and infectious diarrhea. This study aimed to quantify the impact of the floods in 2007 on the burden of disease due to infectious diarrhea in northwest of Anhui Province.

Methods: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was firstly conducted to examine the relationship between daily cases of infectious diarrhea and the 2007 floods in Fuyang and Bozhou of Anhui Province. Odds ratios (ORs) of the flood risk were quantified by conditional logistic regression. The years lived with disability (YLDs) of infectious diarrhea attributable to floods were then estimated based on the WHO framework of the calculating potential impact fraction in the Burden of Disease study.

Results: A total of 197 infectious diarrheas were notified during the exposure and control periods in the two study areas. The strongest effect was shown with a 2-day lag in Fuyang and a 5-day lag in Bozhou. Multivariable analysis showed that floods were significantly associated with an increased risk of the number cases of infectious diarrhea (OR = 3.175, 95%CI: 1.126-8.954 in Fuyang; OR = 6.754, 95%CI: 1.954-23.344 in Bozhou). Attributable YLD per 1000 of infectious diarrhea resulting from the floods was 0.0081 in Fuyang and 0.0209 in Bozhou.

Conclusions: Our findings confirm that floods have significantly increased the risks of infectious diarrhea in the study areas. In addition, prolonged moderate flood may cause more burdens of infectious diarrheas than severe flood with a shorter duration. More attention should be paid to particular vulnerable groups, including younger children and elderly, in developing public health preparation and intervention programs. Findings have significant implications for developing strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods.

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Location of study areas in Anhui Province, China.
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pone-0065112-g001: Location of study areas in Anhui Province, China.

Mentions: During the Meiyu-flood-season of 2007, Huaihe River Basin was hit by severe heavy rainfall with the heaviest precipitation occurring in the north-central Anhui. Our study areas cover Fuyang and Bozhou, two of the worst hit areas, located in the northwest of Anhui Province (Figure 1). Figure 2 shows distribution of daily rainfall in Fuyang and Bozhou during the Meiyu-flood-season of 2007. The total precipitation in Fuyang was 425.9 mm from 30 June to 9 July; and Bozhou had received 297.6 mm from 27 June to 6 July and 87.6 mm from 13 July to 15 July, respectively. According to the flood classification defined by the Comprehensive Study Group of Major Natural Disasters of the State Science and Technology Commission in China, cumulative rainfall of more than 80 mm for three consecutive days or 250 mm for ten consecutive days is a moderate flood; cumulative rainfall of more than 150 mm for three consecutive days or 350 mm for ten consecutive days is a severe flood. According to the flood classification above, Fuyang had suffered one severe flooding and Bozhou had suffered two moderate flooding.


Quantitative analysis of burden of infectious diarrhea associated with floods in northwest of anhui province, china: a mixed method evaluation.

Ding G, Zhang Y, Gao L, Ma W, Li X, Liu J, Liu Q, Jiang B - PLoS ONE (2013)

Location of study areas in Anhui Province, China.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3675108&req=5

pone-0065112-g001: Location of study areas in Anhui Province, China.
Mentions: During the Meiyu-flood-season of 2007, Huaihe River Basin was hit by severe heavy rainfall with the heaviest precipitation occurring in the north-central Anhui. Our study areas cover Fuyang and Bozhou, two of the worst hit areas, located in the northwest of Anhui Province (Figure 1). Figure 2 shows distribution of daily rainfall in Fuyang and Bozhou during the Meiyu-flood-season of 2007. The total precipitation in Fuyang was 425.9 mm from 30 June to 9 July; and Bozhou had received 297.6 mm from 27 June to 6 July and 87.6 mm from 13 July to 15 July, respectively. According to the flood classification defined by the Comprehensive Study Group of Major Natural Disasters of the State Science and Technology Commission in China, cumulative rainfall of more than 80 mm for three consecutive days or 250 mm for ten consecutive days is a moderate flood; cumulative rainfall of more than 150 mm for three consecutive days or 350 mm for ten consecutive days is a severe flood. According to the flood classification above, Fuyang had suffered one severe flooding and Bozhou had suffered two moderate flooding.

Bottom Line: The strongest effect was shown with a 2-day lag in Fuyang and a 5-day lag in Bozhou.Multivariable analysis showed that floods were significantly associated with an increased risk of the number cases of infectious diarrhea (OR = 3.175, 95%CI: 1.126-8.954 in Fuyang; OR = 6.754, 95%CI: 1.954-23.344 in Bozhou).More attention should be paid to particular vulnerable groups, including younger children and elderly, in developing public health preparation and intervention programs.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PR China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Persistent and heavy rainfall in the upper and middle Huaihe River of China brought about severe floods during the end of June and July 2007. However, there has been no assessment on the association between the floods and infectious diarrhea. This study aimed to quantify the impact of the floods in 2007 on the burden of disease due to infectious diarrhea in northwest of Anhui Province.

Methods: A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was firstly conducted to examine the relationship between daily cases of infectious diarrhea and the 2007 floods in Fuyang and Bozhou of Anhui Province. Odds ratios (ORs) of the flood risk were quantified by conditional logistic regression. The years lived with disability (YLDs) of infectious diarrhea attributable to floods were then estimated based on the WHO framework of the calculating potential impact fraction in the Burden of Disease study.

Results: A total of 197 infectious diarrheas were notified during the exposure and control periods in the two study areas. The strongest effect was shown with a 2-day lag in Fuyang and a 5-day lag in Bozhou. Multivariable analysis showed that floods were significantly associated with an increased risk of the number cases of infectious diarrhea (OR = 3.175, 95%CI: 1.126-8.954 in Fuyang; OR = 6.754, 95%CI: 1.954-23.344 in Bozhou). Attributable YLD per 1000 of infectious diarrhea resulting from the floods was 0.0081 in Fuyang and 0.0209 in Bozhou.

Conclusions: Our findings confirm that floods have significantly increased the risks of infectious diarrhea in the study areas. In addition, prolonged moderate flood may cause more burdens of infectious diarrheas than severe flood with a shorter duration. More attention should be paid to particular vulnerable groups, including younger children and elderly, in developing public health preparation and intervention programs. Findings have significant implications for developing strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus