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Modelling Skylarks (Alauda arvensis) to predict impacts of changes in land management and policy: development and testing of an agent-based model.

Topping CJ, Odderskær P, Kahlert J - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: However, there has been some reluctance to use these models for policy applications due to complexity and the need for improved testing and communication of the models.Detailed and stringent tests for model performance were carried out, and standardised model description and open access to the source code were provided to open development of the skylark model to others.Over and above documenting the utility of the model, this open process is essential to engender the user trust and ensure continued development of these comprehensive systems for applied purposes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Bioscience, University of Aarhus, Rønde, Denmark. cjt@dmu.dk

ABSTRACT
Agent-based simulation models provide a viable approach for developing applied models of species and systems for predictive management. However, there has been some reluctance to use these models for policy applications due to complexity and the need for improved testing and communication of the models. We present the development and testing of a comprehensive model for Skylark (Alauda arvensis) in Danish agricultural landscapes. The model is part of the ALMaSS system, which considers not only individual skylarks, but also the detailed dynamic environment from which they obtain the information necessary to simulate their behaviour. Population responses emerge from individuals interacting with each other and the environment. Model development and testing was carried out using pattern-oriented modelling. The testing procedure was based on the model's ability to represent detailed real world patterns of distribution and density, reproductive performance and seasonal changes in territory numbers. Data to support this was collected over a 13-year period and comprised detailed field observations of breeding birds and intensive surveys. The model was able to recreate the real world data patterns accurately; it was also able to simultaneously fit a number of other secondary system properties which were not formally a part of the testing procedure. The correspondence of model output to real world data and sensitivity analysis are presented and discussed, and the model's description is provided in ODdox format (a formal description inter-linked to the program code). Detailed and stringent tests for model performance were carried out, and standardised model description and open access to the source code were provided to open development of the skylark model to others. Over and above documenting the utility of the model, this open process is essential to engender the user trust and ensure continued development of these comprehensive systems for applied purposes.

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Comparison of the hatching day of successful clutches (minimum one egg hatched), and causes of nest failure observed in the Kalø study area and those predicted by the ALMaSS skylark model.
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pone-0065803-g003: Comparison of the hatching day of successful clutches (minimum one egg hatched), and causes of nest failure observed in the Kalø study area and those predicted by the ALMaSS skylark model.

Mentions: An excellent fit (R2 = 0.993) was obtained to the distribution of egg hatching times, and the associated mortality if not hatching (Fig. 3). Hatch date distribution and mortality causes were accurately predicted by the model, although it was not possible to maintain this fit and have any model birds hatching on day 10.


Modelling Skylarks (Alauda arvensis) to predict impacts of changes in land management and policy: development and testing of an agent-based model.

Topping CJ, Odderskær P, Kahlert J - PLoS ONE (2013)

Comparison of the hatching day of successful clutches (minimum one egg hatched), and causes of nest failure observed in the Kalø study area and those predicted by the ALMaSS skylark model.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3675089&req=5

pone-0065803-g003: Comparison of the hatching day of successful clutches (minimum one egg hatched), and causes of nest failure observed in the Kalø study area and those predicted by the ALMaSS skylark model.
Mentions: An excellent fit (R2 = 0.993) was obtained to the distribution of egg hatching times, and the associated mortality if not hatching (Fig. 3). Hatch date distribution and mortality causes were accurately predicted by the model, although it was not possible to maintain this fit and have any model birds hatching on day 10.

Bottom Line: However, there has been some reluctance to use these models for policy applications due to complexity and the need for improved testing and communication of the models.Detailed and stringent tests for model performance were carried out, and standardised model description and open access to the source code were provided to open development of the skylark model to others.Over and above documenting the utility of the model, this open process is essential to engender the user trust and ensure continued development of these comprehensive systems for applied purposes.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Bioscience, University of Aarhus, Rønde, Denmark. cjt@dmu.dk

ABSTRACT
Agent-based simulation models provide a viable approach for developing applied models of species and systems for predictive management. However, there has been some reluctance to use these models for policy applications due to complexity and the need for improved testing and communication of the models. We present the development and testing of a comprehensive model for Skylark (Alauda arvensis) in Danish agricultural landscapes. The model is part of the ALMaSS system, which considers not only individual skylarks, but also the detailed dynamic environment from which they obtain the information necessary to simulate their behaviour. Population responses emerge from individuals interacting with each other and the environment. Model development and testing was carried out using pattern-oriented modelling. The testing procedure was based on the model's ability to represent detailed real world patterns of distribution and density, reproductive performance and seasonal changes in territory numbers. Data to support this was collected over a 13-year period and comprised detailed field observations of breeding birds and intensive surveys. The model was able to recreate the real world data patterns accurately; it was also able to simultaneously fit a number of other secondary system properties which were not formally a part of the testing procedure. The correspondence of model output to real world data and sensitivity analysis are presented and discussed, and the model's description is provided in ODdox format (a formal description inter-linked to the program code). Detailed and stringent tests for model performance were carried out, and standardised model description and open access to the source code were provided to open development of the skylark model to others. Over and above documenting the utility of the model, this open process is essential to engender the user trust and ensure continued development of these comprehensive systems for applied purposes.

Show MeSH