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Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

Huang JG, Bergeron Y, Berninger F, Zhai L, Tardif JC, Denneler B - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming.The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming.Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada. huang500@purdue.edu

ABSTRACT
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

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Comparison between average growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen predicted by the A-model, and that predicted by the F-model at each latitude from 48 to 54°N over time slices 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 in the eastern Canadian boreal forest.The error bars were shown by the short dashed lines.
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pone-0056758-g005: Comparison between average growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen predicted by the A-model, and that predicted by the F-model at each latitude from 48 to 54°N over time slices 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 in the eastern Canadian boreal forest.The error bars were shown by the short dashed lines.

Mentions: As illustrated in Fig. 5 and Fig. S2, the F-model simulation results showed that except for an expected growth decrease until 2099 at 46 and 48°N, aspen would have a moderate growth increase during 2010–2099 at most of the latitudes, with the highest growth increase (up to 40%) at 53–54°N. Birch would show a potential growth increase until 2099 at 51–54°N, and a growth decrease during most of the 21st century at 46–50°N. Like aspen, the fastest growth increase (up to 40–50%) is expected for stands at 53–54°N. Spruce would show a moderate growth increase north of 48°N, relatively minor growth fluctuations at 47–48°N, and a linear growth decrease at 46°N to as low as 30% in 2099. Pine would show a strong linear growth increase (up to 60%) at 51–54°N, moderate growth increases (10%) at 48–50°N, and a weak, fluctuating growth increase from 2010–2099.


Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

Huang JG, Bergeron Y, Berninger F, Zhai L, Tardif JC, Denneler B - PLoS ONE (2013)

Comparison between average growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen predicted by the A-model, and that predicted by the F-model at each latitude from 48 to 54°N over time slices 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 in the eastern Canadian boreal forest.The error bars were shown by the short dashed lines.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3585260&req=5

pone-0056758-g005: Comparison between average growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen predicted by the A-model, and that predicted by the F-model at each latitude from 48 to 54°N over time slices 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099 in the eastern Canadian boreal forest.The error bars were shown by the short dashed lines.
Mentions: As illustrated in Fig. 5 and Fig. S2, the F-model simulation results showed that except for an expected growth decrease until 2099 at 46 and 48°N, aspen would have a moderate growth increase during 2010–2099 at most of the latitudes, with the highest growth increase (up to 40%) at 53–54°N. Birch would show a potential growth increase until 2099 at 51–54°N, and a growth decrease during most of the 21st century at 46–50°N. Like aspen, the fastest growth increase (up to 40–50%) is expected for stands at 53–54°N. Spruce would show a moderate growth increase north of 48°N, relatively minor growth fluctuations at 47–48°N, and a linear growth decrease at 46°N to as low as 30% in 2099. Pine would show a strong linear growth increase (up to 60%) at 51–54°N, moderate growth increases (10%) at 48–50°N, and a weak, fluctuating growth increase from 2010–2099.

Bottom Line: Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming.The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming.Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada. huang500@purdue.edu

ABSTRACT
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus