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Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

Huang JG, Bergeron Y, Berninger F, Zhai L, Tardif JC, Denneler B - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming.The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming.Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada. huang500@purdue.edu

ABSTRACT
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

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Partitioning of variance in mean simulated growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen along the gradient.The pie plot shows that the proportions of variance in mean growth change for each species explained by the calibration models (M), scenarios (S), latitudes (L), and the interactive effects of the above three factors, as well as the climate. Grey dots represent the least square means of potential growth change of each species predicted from 2010 to 2099. Grey short lines represent the standard error of the means.
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pone-0056758-g002: Partitioning of variance in mean simulated growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen along the gradient.The pie plot shows that the proportions of variance in mean growth change for each species explained by the calibration models (M), scenarios (S), latitudes (L), and the interactive effects of the above three factors, as well as the climate. Grey dots represent the least square means of potential growth change of each species predicted from 2010 to 2099. Grey short lines represent the standard error of the means.

Mentions: As illustrated in Fig. 2 D, climate variability accounts for about half of the simulated variability (45.6%–54.3%), followed by the calibration model differences representing 26.5%–47.1% of simulated variability, scenario differences representing 0.1%–3.7%, latitude differences representing 1.2%–5.9%, and other interactive effects representing 4.2%–13.7%. As shown in Fig. 2 A, the northern models for aspen, birch and pine generally predicted a large growth increase, whereas the southern models predicted a minor growth change. The models for spruce mostly show a moderate increase in growth with increasing latitude except for the southernmost and northernmost stands. Among different latitudes (Fig. 2 C), the MGC was predicted to increase towards the north (5.1% to 10.6% from south to north for aspen, 4.0% to 8.6% for birch, −0.2% to 7.7% for spruce, and 7.0% to 13.6% for pine). Among different scenarios (Fig. 2 B), relatively less variability in simulated MGC was found. Within the GCMs, the A2 scenario generally resulted in better growth in aspen and pine than the B2 scenario, yet no such difference was found for other two species.


Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

Huang JG, Bergeron Y, Berninger F, Zhai L, Tardif JC, Denneler B - PLoS ONE (2013)

Partitioning of variance in mean simulated growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen along the gradient.The pie plot shows that the proportions of variance in mean growth change for each species explained by the calibration models (M), scenarios (S), latitudes (L), and the interactive effects of the above three factors, as well as the climate. Grey dots represent the least square means of potential growth change of each species predicted from 2010 to 2099. Grey short lines represent the standard error of the means.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3585260&req=5

pone-0056758-g002: Partitioning of variance in mean simulated growth change of paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen along the gradient.The pie plot shows that the proportions of variance in mean growth change for each species explained by the calibration models (M), scenarios (S), latitudes (L), and the interactive effects of the above three factors, as well as the climate. Grey dots represent the least square means of potential growth change of each species predicted from 2010 to 2099. Grey short lines represent the standard error of the means.
Mentions: As illustrated in Fig. 2 D, climate variability accounts for about half of the simulated variability (45.6%–54.3%), followed by the calibration model differences representing 26.5%–47.1% of simulated variability, scenario differences representing 0.1%–3.7%, latitude differences representing 1.2%–5.9%, and other interactive effects representing 4.2%–13.7%. As shown in Fig. 2 A, the northern models for aspen, birch and pine generally predicted a large growth increase, whereas the southern models predicted a minor growth change. The models for spruce mostly show a moderate increase in growth with increasing latitude except for the southernmost and northernmost stands. Among different latitudes (Fig. 2 C), the MGC was predicted to increase towards the north (5.1% to 10.6% from south to north for aspen, 4.0% to 8.6% for birch, −0.2% to 7.7% for spruce, and 7.0% to 13.6% for pine). Among different scenarios (Fig. 2 B), relatively less variability in simulated MGC was found. Within the GCMs, the A2 scenario generally resulted in better growth in aspen and pine than the B2 scenario, yet no such difference was found for other two species.

Bottom Line: Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming.The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming.Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada. huang500@purdue.edu

ABSTRACT
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus