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Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

Huang JG, Bergeron Y, Berninger F, Zhai L, Tardif JC, Denneler B - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming.The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming.Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada. huang500@purdue.edu

ABSTRACT
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

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The sampling sites for paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen in the eastern Canadian boreal forest, where all four species (•), only two conifers (▴), only two deciduous species (half solid circle), only aspen, spruce and pine (*), and only birch (▪) were sampled at the site.The origins of major air mass types affecting the climate of the region are also indicated: dry polar (DP), moist polar (MP), moderate moist (MM), and moist tropical (MT) [11].
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pone-0056758-g001: The sampling sites for paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen in the eastern Canadian boreal forest, where all four species (•), only two conifers (▴), only two deciduous species (half solid circle), only aspen, spruce and pine (*), and only birch (▪) were sampled at the site.The origins of major air mass types affecting the climate of the region are also indicated: dry polar (DP), moist polar (MP), moderate moist (MM), and moist tropical (MT) [11].

Mentions: The study area is located along the Quebec-Ontario border over a latitudinal gradient ranging from Petawawa (approximately 46°N) in the south to Radisson (approximately 54°N) in the north (Fig. 1). The topography along the gradient is generally flat and uniform with low-elevation hills and rock outcrops. The climate of the region is dominated by dry polar and moderate polar air masses in winter, and by moist maritime and moist tropical air masses in summer [11]. A climate gradient followed the latitudinal gradient, as described in Huang et al. [6]. A vegetation transition zone between the mixedwood and the coniferous-dominated boreal forest occurs at approximately 49°N [12]. The tree line is about 500 km north of the northernmost stands.


Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

Huang JG, Bergeron Y, Berninger F, Zhai L, Tardif JC, Denneler B - PLoS ONE (2013)

The sampling sites for paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen in the eastern Canadian boreal forest, where all four species (•), only two conifers (▴), only two deciduous species (half solid circle), only aspen, spruce and pine (*), and only birch (▪) were sampled at the site.The origins of major air mass types affecting the climate of the region are also indicated: dry polar (DP), moist polar (MP), moderate moist (MM), and moist tropical (MT) [11].
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3585260&req=5

pone-0056758-g001: The sampling sites for paper birch, jack pine, black spruce, and trembling aspen in the eastern Canadian boreal forest, where all four species (•), only two conifers (▴), only two deciduous species (half solid circle), only aspen, spruce and pine (*), and only birch (▪) were sampled at the site.The origins of major air mass types affecting the climate of the region are also indicated: dry polar (DP), moist polar (MP), moderate moist (MM), and moist tropical (MT) [11].
Mentions: The study area is located along the Quebec-Ontario border over a latitudinal gradient ranging from Petawawa (approximately 46°N) in the south to Radisson (approximately 54°N) in the north (Fig. 1). The topography along the gradient is generally flat and uniform with low-elevation hills and rock outcrops. The climate of the region is dominated by dry polar and moderate polar air masses in winter, and by moist maritime and moist tropical air masses in summer [11]. A climate gradient followed the latitudinal gradient, as described in Huang et al. [6]. A vegetation transition zone between the mixedwood and the coniferous-dominated boreal forest occurs at approximately 49°N [12]. The tree line is about 500 km north of the northernmost stands.

Bottom Line: Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming.The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming.Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada. huang500@purdue.edu

ABSTRACT
Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus