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Risk of exposure to eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus increases with the density of northern cardinals.

Estep LK, McClure CJ, Vander Kelen P, Burkett-Cadena ND, Sickerman S, Hernandez J, Jinright J, Hunt B, Lusk J, Hoover V, Armstrong K, Stark LM, Hill GE, Unnasch TR - PLoS ONE (2013)

Bottom Line: For a variety of infectious diseases, the richness of the community of potential host species has emerged as an important factor in pathogen transmission, whereby a higher richness of host species is associated with a lowered disease risk.We found the highest support for the model that included the density of northern cardinals, a highly preferred host of mosquito vectors of EEEV, as a predictor variable.These results suggest that mosquito preferences for vertebrate hosts influence pathogen transmission.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America. estepl@science.oregonstate.edu

ABSTRACT
For a variety of infectious diseases, the richness of the community of potential host species has emerged as an important factor in pathogen transmission, whereby a higher richness of host species is associated with a lowered disease risk. The proposed mechanism driving this pattern is an increased likelihood in species-rich communities that infectious individuals will encounter dead-end hosts. Mosquito-borne pathogen systems potentially are exceptions to such "dilution effects" because mosquitoes vary their rates of use of vertebrate host species as bloodmeal sources relative to host availabilities. Such preferences may violate basic assumptions underlying the hypothesis of a dilution effect in pathogen systems. Here, we describe development of a model to predict exposure risk of sentinel chickens to eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) in Walton County, Florida between 2009 and 2010 using avian species richness as well as densities of individual host species potentially important to EEEV transmission as candidate predictor variables. We found the highest support for the model that included the density of northern cardinals, a highly preferred host of mosquito vectors of EEEV, as a predictor variable. The highest-ranking model also included Culiseta melanura abundance as a predictor variable. These results suggest that mosquito preferences for vertebrate hosts influence pathogen transmission.

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Related in: MedlinePlus

Association between EEEV exposure and northern cardinal density.Scatterplot showing the relationship between EEEV exposure risk in chickens during 2009 and 2010 and northern cardinal density at 24 sentinel sites in Walton County, Florida. The estimate for the slope of exposure risk regressed on northern cardinal density was 0.006 with a 95% UCI of [0.0025, 0.0107]. This estimated slope, when an influential observation (indicated by the arrow) was removed from the dataset, was 0.004 [−0.001, 0.009]. The best-fit line from simple linear regression of exposure risk residuals on northern cardinal density are overlaid, with the solid line fit to the full dataset, and the dashed line fit to the dataset that excluded the influential observation.
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pone-0057879-g003: Association between EEEV exposure and northern cardinal density.Scatterplot showing the relationship between EEEV exposure risk in chickens during 2009 and 2010 and northern cardinal density at 24 sentinel sites in Walton County, Florida. The estimate for the slope of exposure risk regressed on northern cardinal density was 0.006 with a 95% UCI of [0.0025, 0.0107]. This estimated slope, when an influential observation (indicated by the arrow) was removed from the dataset, was 0.004 [−0.001, 0.009]. The best-fit line from simple linear regression of exposure risk residuals on northern cardinal density are overlaid, with the solid line fit to the full dataset, and the dashed line fit to the dataset that excluded the influential observation.

Mentions: The model of EEEV exposure risk in sentinel chickens that had the strongest support included one predictor: northern cardinal density (Figure 3). One other model had strong support, i.e. ΔAICc <2; it included northern cardinal density and Cs. melanura abundance as predictor variables (Table 1, Figure 4).


Risk of exposure to eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus increases with the density of northern cardinals.

Estep LK, McClure CJ, Vander Kelen P, Burkett-Cadena ND, Sickerman S, Hernandez J, Jinright J, Hunt B, Lusk J, Hoover V, Armstrong K, Stark LM, Hill GE, Unnasch TR - PLoS ONE (2013)

Association between EEEV exposure and northern cardinal density.Scatterplot showing the relationship between EEEV exposure risk in chickens during 2009 and 2010 and northern cardinal density at 24 sentinel sites in Walton County, Florida. The estimate for the slope of exposure risk regressed on northern cardinal density was 0.006 with a 95% UCI of [0.0025, 0.0107]. This estimated slope, when an influential observation (indicated by the arrow) was removed from the dataset, was 0.004 [−0.001, 0.009]. The best-fit line from simple linear regression of exposure risk residuals on northern cardinal density are overlaid, with the solid line fit to the full dataset, and the dashed line fit to the dataset that excluded the influential observation.
© Copyright Policy
Related In: Results  -  Collection

Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3585233&req=5

pone-0057879-g003: Association between EEEV exposure and northern cardinal density.Scatterplot showing the relationship between EEEV exposure risk in chickens during 2009 and 2010 and northern cardinal density at 24 sentinel sites in Walton County, Florida. The estimate for the slope of exposure risk regressed on northern cardinal density was 0.006 with a 95% UCI of [0.0025, 0.0107]. This estimated slope, when an influential observation (indicated by the arrow) was removed from the dataset, was 0.004 [−0.001, 0.009]. The best-fit line from simple linear regression of exposure risk residuals on northern cardinal density are overlaid, with the solid line fit to the full dataset, and the dashed line fit to the dataset that excluded the influential observation.
Mentions: The model of EEEV exposure risk in sentinel chickens that had the strongest support included one predictor: northern cardinal density (Figure 3). One other model had strong support, i.e. ΔAICc <2; it included northern cardinal density and Cs. melanura abundance as predictor variables (Table 1, Figure 4).

Bottom Line: For a variety of infectious diseases, the richness of the community of potential host species has emerged as an important factor in pathogen transmission, whereby a higher richness of host species is associated with a lowered disease risk.We found the highest support for the model that included the density of northern cardinals, a highly preferred host of mosquito vectors of EEEV, as a predictor variable.These results suggest that mosquito preferences for vertebrate hosts influence pathogen transmission.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America. estepl@science.oregonstate.edu

ABSTRACT
For a variety of infectious diseases, the richness of the community of potential host species has emerged as an important factor in pathogen transmission, whereby a higher richness of host species is associated with a lowered disease risk. The proposed mechanism driving this pattern is an increased likelihood in species-rich communities that infectious individuals will encounter dead-end hosts. Mosquito-borne pathogen systems potentially are exceptions to such "dilution effects" because mosquitoes vary their rates of use of vertebrate host species as bloodmeal sources relative to host availabilities. Such preferences may violate basic assumptions underlying the hypothesis of a dilution effect in pathogen systems. Here, we describe development of a model to predict exposure risk of sentinel chickens to eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) in Walton County, Florida between 2009 and 2010 using avian species richness as well as densities of individual host species potentially important to EEEV transmission as candidate predictor variables. We found the highest support for the model that included the density of northern cardinals, a highly preferred host of mosquito vectors of EEEV, as a predictor variable. The highest-ranking model also included Culiseta melanura abundance as a predictor variable. These results suggest that mosquito preferences for vertebrate hosts influence pathogen transmission.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus