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Short-term effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in three subtropical cities in Guangdong Province, China.

Xie H, Yao Z, Zhang Y, Xu Y, Xu X, Liu T, Lin H, Lao X, Rutherford S, Chu C, Huang C, Baum S, Ma W - Environ. Health Perspect. (2012)

Bottom Line: Estimated effects at lag0-27 were more pronounced for males than for females, for respiratory mortality than for cardiovascular mortality, and for the elderly (≥ 75 years of age) than for those 0-64 years of age.Most of the cumulative RRs increased with longer lag times in Guangzhou and Taishan.However, in Nanxiong, the trend with cumulative RRs was less consistent, and we observed no statistically significant associations at lag0-27.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Few studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of extreme cold events on mortality in subtropical regions.

Objective: In the present study we aimed to investigate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality and the possibility of mortality displacement in three subtropical cities in China.

Methods: Daily mortality, air pollution, and weather data were collected from 2006 to 2009 in Guangzhou, Nanxiong (no air pollutants), and Taishan. We used a polynomial distributed lag model (DLM) to analyze the relationship between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. To observe the mortality displacement of the cold spell, we estimated the cumulative effects at lag0, lag0-6, lag0-13, lag0-20, and lag0-27 separately.

Results: During the 2008 cold spell, the cumulative risk of nonaccidental mortality increased significantly in Guangzhou [relative risk (RR) = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.14] and Taishan (RR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.40) when lagged up to 4 weeks after the cold spell ended. Estimated effects at lag0-27 were more pronounced for males than for females, for respiratory mortality than for cardiovascular mortality, and for the elderly (≥ 75 years of age) than for those 0-64 years of age. Most of the cumulative RRs increased with longer lag times in Guangzhou and Taishan. However, in Nanxiong, the trend with cumulative RRs was less consistent, and we observed no statistically significant associations at lag0-27.

Conclusion: We found associations between the 2008 cold spell and increased mortality in the three subtropical cities of China. The lag effect structure of the cold spell varied with location and the type of mortality, and evidence of short-term mortality displacement was inconsistent. These findings suggest that extreme cold is an important public health problem in subtropical regions.

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Map of Guangdong Province, China, highlighting the cities of Nanxiong, Guangzhou, and Taishan.
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f1: Map of Guangdong Province, China, highlighting the cities of Nanxiong, Guangzhou, and Taishan.

Mentions: Study settings. Guangdong is one of China’s southernmost provinces. It has a typical subtropical climate with an average annual temperature of 22°C. Data were collected for three cities located in different parts of the province (Figure 1): Nanxiong, the northernmost city, with a population of > 400,000 by the end of 2009; Guangzhou, the centrally located capital of Guangdong Province, with a total population of > 7 million; and Taishan, a coastal city in southern Guangdong, with a population > 900,000 by the end of 2009. On the basis of data availability, we used data from two districts of Guangzhou (Yue Xiu and Li Wan, with an estimated population of 1.86 million in 2009) for this study.


Short-term effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in three subtropical cities in Guangdong Province, China.

Xie H, Yao Z, Zhang Y, Xu Y, Xu X, Liu T, Lin H, Lao X, Rutherford S, Chu C, Huang C, Baum S, Ma W - Environ. Health Perspect. (2012)

Map of Guangdong Province, China, highlighting the cities of Nanxiong, Guangzhou, and Taishan.
© Copyright Policy - public-domain
Related In: Results  -  Collection

License
Show All Figures
getmorefigures.php?uid=PMC3569675&req=5

f1: Map of Guangdong Province, China, highlighting the cities of Nanxiong, Guangzhou, and Taishan.
Mentions: Study settings. Guangdong is one of China’s southernmost provinces. It has a typical subtropical climate with an average annual temperature of 22°C. Data were collected for three cities located in different parts of the province (Figure 1): Nanxiong, the northernmost city, with a population of > 400,000 by the end of 2009; Guangzhou, the centrally located capital of Guangdong Province, with a total population of > 7 million; and Taishan, a coastal city in southern Guangdong, with a population > 900,000 by the end of 2009. On the basis of data availability, we used data from two districts of Guangzhou (Yue Xiu and Li Wan, with an estimated population of 1.86 million in 2009) for this study.

Bottom Line: Estimated effects at lag0-27 were more pronounced for males than for females, for respiratory mortality than for cardiovascular mortality, and for the elderly (≥ 75 years of age) than for those 0-64 years of age.Most of the cumulative RRs increased with longer lag times in Guangzhou and Taishan.However, in Nanxiong, the trend with cumulative RRs was less consistent, and we observed no statistically significant associations at lag0-27.

View Article: PubMed Central - PubMed

Affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.

ABSTRACT

Background: Few studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of extreme cold events on mortality in subtropical regions.

Objective: In the present study we aimed to investigate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality and the possibility of mortality displacement in three subtropical cities in China.

Methods: Daily mortality, air pollution, and weather data were collected from 2006 to 2009 in Guangzhou, Nanxiong (no air pollutants), and Taishan. We used a polynomial distributed lag model (DLM) to analyze the relationship between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. To observe the mortality displacement of the cold spell, we estimated the cumulative effects at lag0, lag0-6, lag0-13, lag0-20, and lag0-27 separately.

Results: During the 2008 cold spell, the cumulative risk of nonaccidental mortality increased significantly in Guangzhou [relative risk (RR) = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.14] and Taishan (RR = 1.60; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.40) when lagged up to 4 weeks after the cold spell ended. Estimated effects at lag0-27 were more pronounced for males than for females, for respiratory mortality than for cardiovascular mortality, and for the elderly (≥ 75 years of age) than for those 0-64 years of age. Most of the cumulative RRs increased with longer lag times in Guangzhou and Taishan. However, in Nanxiong, the trend with cumulative RRs was less consistent, and we observed no statistically significant associations at lag0-27.

Conclusion: We found associations between the 2008 cold spell and increased mortality in the three subtropical cities of China. The lag effect structure of the cold spell varied with location and the type of mortality, and evidence of short-term mortality displacement was inconsistent. These findings suggest that extreme cold is an important public health problem in subtropical regions.

Show MeSH
Related in: MedlinePlus